49ERS vs CHIEFS
6:30 p.m., 49ers by 2.5, 47.
HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s start with the obvious, the 49ers are the more talented team across the board while the Chiefs are the more playoff-seasoned team led by the NFL’s best QB, both in the clutch and as an underdog. That makes this an extremely tough call. We can also say that, while the Chiefs seem to be improving with each week, the Niners are playing well below their talent level. Can they turn it on against much better competition?
You can’t overlook two factors: Andy Reid’s success with two weeks of preparation time and that Steve Spagnuolo is arguably among the best big-game defensive coordinators ever, including a Super Bowl upset of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Out of necessity, Reid’s playbook isn’t as explosively diverse or as complicated as it has been in recent years, but the 49ers have recently displayed a few defensive weaknesses that he can exploit. As for Spagnuolo, granted, this is no ordinary offense he’s scheming against. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is free-flowing and creative. It’s Sid Gillman. It’s Bill Walsh. It’s his father, Mike. It forces a defense to cover the entire field, and, in the superbly versatile RB Christian McCaffrey, they have their poster boy.
Teams that don’t see the Niners often can be confused by the pre-snap deception and misdirection. Mental sharpness is critical. But the same can be said of quarterbacks who face the Chiefs. K.C.’s blitzes and disguised coverages will force Brock Purdy to be on top of his game. With a little luck, he’s delivered so far, but you cannot compare the Packers and Lions’ defensive units to this one. Purdy hasn’t see one this good since his forgettable Christmas Eve game against the Ravens. The Chiefs will not let him get away with the mistake throws he’s made in the playoffs.
This is a defense that allowed more than 21 points only three times all year and had all the answers for Tua Tagovailoa’s Dolphins, Josh Allen’s Bills and Lamar Jackson’s Ravens. Even without super spy Willie Gay in the lineup, they were able to contain Jackson. The probable league MVP looked strangely out of his element while the Chiefs looked perfectly comfortable playing for a Super Bowl berth. The Ravens, for reasons unknown, idiotically failed to challenge the Chiefs’ perceived weakness against the run. The 49ers will. They are a running team first. They are not going to win this game challenging the Chiefs’ corners, although the middle of the field could be there for TE George Kittle (Purdy’s usual escape hatch against the blitz) and WR Deebo Samuel, especially if McCaffrey can work underneath. He has to be the guy and he has to be the focus of the Chiefs’ defense. If the 49ers win, odds are he will be the MVP.
The 49ers defense may have had great numbers during the regular season but was hardly impressive against the Packers and Lions, facing either the run or the pass. The Niners were lucky to win both games and lost both ATS, deservedly so, mostly because their vaunted D was on its heels, allowing almost a full yard more per play than in the regular season. The biggest problem has been at the point of attack. Their defense has been talking about a lack of effort that will not happen again, but their front seven — the strength of their team — has been tossed around, particularly Chase Young, and especially by the Lions’ outstanding group in the NFC title game. Now, the Chiefs’ offensive line is probably their biggest area of improvement, outside of some still nagging pre-snap and holding calls. Reid, meanwhile, has embraced the mentality with a game plan better suited for the ’86 Giants than the 2019 Chiefs. Outside of key contributions from rookie Rashee Rice, he has built the offense around the big three of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco.
No one seems interested in tackling the violent-running kid out of Rutgers once he’s past the line of scrimmage. His production allows the Chiefs to keep grinding teams down with long, sustained drives and serves to take some attention away from Mahomes, if that’s possible. The 49ers must stop him early and they didn’t do that against Aaron Jones or the Lions’ two backs, allowing an astounding 318 yards in two games. Ordinarily, the 49ers handle tight ends well because their mobile linebackers excel in coverage, but Sam LaPorta just had nine catches for 97 yards on 13 targets against them. Kelce knows how to find the openings against zone coverage and has been killing teams on the perimeter, rather than inside.
The 49ers play zone as well as anyone — until recently. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks may have to be more creative, especially if Reid looks to exploit the Niners’ nickel corner, Ambry Thomas. As for Mahomes, he is still making every play he needs to make and his 10-1-1 career record as an underdog is daunting. He hasn’t made a negative play (unlike Purdy) in what has been an incredible playoff run.
There will be two critical points in the game — how each offense comes out of the gate with its scripted plays and how each defense executes its halftime adjustments — and we give K.C. the edge in both, even though both teams are historically excellent in both areas. Shanahan has gained a reputation as the game’s best play-caller, with his best stuff often seen in his first scripted 24 plays. Yet the 49ers haven’t scored a first-quarter TD all playoffs. The Chiefs have scored on eight straight opening drives in the playoffs, six for TDs.
The 49ers have mounted two second-half comebacks in the postseason after falling behind early, although Dan Campbell certainly helped them out with his fourth-down gambles. They can’t fall behind by those margins here. The Chiefs have allowed a total of 10 second-half points in their three playoff games and were most impressive in taking the run game away from the Bills after being pounded in the first half.
Special teams could also have a huge impact. Harrison Butker has been money in the playoffs, including from long range. Rookie Jake Moody has been shaky for the 49ers. He’s 3-for-5 in the postseason with both misses between 40-49 yards. With the spread inside a FG, that’s something to consider.
Wrap it up this way. You know what to expect out of the Chiefs. They’ve been here before and they’re going to make you earn it. The 49ers must play up to their talent level and we haven’t seen it lately, although that also makes them dangerous that they’ve made it through to this game. Turnovers, bad calls and dumb plays (we’re thinking of Zay Flowers’ costly macho routine) are the unknowable variables, but all things considered, we lean K.C.
As for the total, the Chiefs’ offensive approach of long drives over explosive plays favors low scores, and, true to that, they have been the best under team in the NFL this year, 14-6 in all games. The 49ers have more downfield capability, but the way to attack the K.C. defense is on the ground and that should lead to more extended drives on their end. Both defenses are good in the red zone, although offensively, the 49ers were the league’s best regular-season team with a 68.49 TD percentage, as opposed to the Chiefs’ 54.1
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the under.