BUYER POWER
Tigers refuse to go into sellers’ mode
NINE American League teams are either in a playoff spot or within 2 ¹ / ₂ games of one. Just one AL club is more than 6 ¹ / ₂ games out of at least a wild card.
This is slowing the trade market, as even the worst teams can convince themselves they are just a good week or 10 days away from buying rather than selling.
The five teams at the bottom of the AL— those between 5 ¹ / ₂ and 7 games out of a playoff spot — have reasons to keep pushing.
The AL worst A’s have the fourthbest run differential in the league, which perhaps better reflects their abilities. The White Sox, Mariners and Red Sox each invested heavily in the offseason to go for it in 2015, and don’t want to admit those plans were failures. The Indians, picked by Sports Illustrated to win it all this year, have the kind of power rotation — averaging a major leaguerecord 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings— to stimulate a season shifting winning streak.
Yet, the team at the most interesting buyer seller crossroads is Detroit. For the record, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, “I’d be very surprised [ to become sellers]. I don’t anticipate it. We think we can hang in and will hang in, and that we are still good enough to win.”
And— like the Yankees— it is not in that organization’s DNA to surrender. Aging Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has supported substantial payrolls because he wants to win it all in his lifetime. That go for it spirit has brought four straight AL Central crowns, however, a close but no cigar reality.
In a league lacking a great team and in a division that is still winnable, the Tigers ( 4240 after a win Monday night) would have a hard sell to their fervent owner and city to break it up. I admire the go for it spirit in a sport in which too many teams lock down their money and prospects ( take a bow if this reminds you of the Mets).
But in that Tigers stubbornness I see what turned the Phillies from arguably the best fiveyear run in their history ( 20082012) into a slide that nowhas bottomed out into by far the majors’ worst team.
The formula: Pay the stars who brought excellence longterm through their injury/ production phase, and use the farm system to add more veterans to chase the dream. For Philadelphia, the result has been having hard to trade aging icons and a prospect base not ready to take the baton.
The Tigers, in particular, invested in Miguel Cabrera ( through age 40), Justin Verlander ( through 36) and Victor Martinez ( through 40). Cabrera, as great as ever, just went on the disabled list ( calf strain) for the first time in his career and is out until at least mid August. And the Tigers are not going to weather that without Verlander and Martinez approximating top players if not their vintage selves — and nothing that has happened with their health or performance to date would encourage that a return to excellence is near.
Dombrowski always has been a crafty/ aggressive trader, able to land what his team needed even when the industry has said the Tigers do not have a good farm system. However, Detroit is not viewed as having a lot of impact down below and has been hurt that onetime hyped prospect Nick Castellanos has yet to flourish in the majors.
Right now, Dombrowski is still saying an offense built around Yoenis Cespedes, Victor Martinez and J. D. Martinez should be fine, and a rotation with David Price, Anibal Sanchez and Verlander should work. Butwhat if the Tigers are, say, four or five games under on July 25? Do they change their minds and, at the least, see if they can restock their system by trading walkyear players such as Cespedes, Price, starter Alfredo Simon, closer Joakim Soria and catcher Alex Avila?
Sanchez has rebounded after a poor start and is owed $ 38.6 million between 201617, which he will pitch at age 3233. Should he be marketed? Does Ian Kinsler, having a down year and owed $ 30 million for 201617 when he will be 3435, still have value? The most interesting case would be if Detroit tries to capitalize on a time when so many contenders need shortstops and consider moving defensive whiz Jose Iglesias.
For now, though, the Tigers want to believe they are contenders and buyers, and not heading toward a new version of the Philadelphia Story.