(IM)PROVING HIS WORTH

Excelling on big stage could push Murph’s next deal well past $50M

Following the 2013 season, t he Padre s were weighing whether to trade Chase Headley, and San Diego’s senior vice president of baseball operations Omar Minaya had a thought.

Minaya had drafted Daniel Murphy in 2006, when he was the Mets’ general manager and always liked him. So he recommended San Diego acquire Murphy (the Padres offered Luke Gregerson) to be a multiposition player, but available to play third base if, indeed, the Padres traded Headley either that offseason or before the July trade deadline (which they did, to the Yankees).

The Mets wanted more than a reliever for Murphy and the talks stalled. But the Padres saw Murphy as being a worse fielder, but a better hitter than Headley and, therefore, of somewhat similar value. Which could be informative to gauge what Murphy will get in free agency.

Headley, after completing his age-30 season, received a fouryear, $52 million contract to return to the Yankees as a free agent. Murphy just completed his age-30 season and several agents (not Murphy’s) and executives (not from the Mets) thought Headley was a reasonable comparison.

A case could be made Murphy — who blasted his f ifth home run of the postseason Sunday night in the Mets’ 4-1 win as they took a 2-0 series lead — should get even more. In this era, organizations value defensive versatility more than ever and while Murphy may be average with the glove at best, he can play first, second, third and — in the AL — DH. Also, in an age of high-end pitching and defensive shifts, more clubs appreciate players who do not swing and miss (Murphy had the majors’ lowest strikeout percentage) and can produce a strong batting average.

Lastly, Murphy’s superb postseason is showing he can handle this stage and reiterating he can hit the game’s best pitching. If you don’t think that matters consider:

In the three seasons before his free agency last offseason, Pablo Sandoval hit .280 with a .335 on-base percentage, a .424 slugging percentage and a .759 OPS or similar to Murphy’s last three seasons: . 285/. 324/.420/.744. Sandoval was a switch hitter, young (28) for a free agent and considered a good defender, which all bolstered his free agency. Headley is a switch-hitter who was viewed as a good defender. But what most financially elevated Sandoval from Headley in last year’s free-agent market and led Boston to give him $95 million for five years was Sandoval’s great 2012 and ’14 postseasons (.365 average, .989 OPS) that produced a sense the bigger the game, the bigger the player.

Murphy is in the midst of attaining that label. And if you believe his late-season/postseason power surge is the beginning of him incorporating hom- ers into his game, then his value grows. As one scout assigned to the Mets this postseason said, “He has been on everything, pulled for power more than I can ever remember and made me start to think if you put him in the right stadium, would some of all those doubles he hits every year turn into 20-plus homers annually?”

The Mets have long seemed content to let Murphy leave, have Wilmer Flores, Dilson Herrera or Matt Reynolds cheaply assume second and not even extend the $15.8 million qualifying offer to recoup a draft pick if he signs elsewhere. But if the Mets have also come to believe Murphy will get at least a Headley-esque contract then they must qualify him because, at worst, he would be valuable as a one-year, $15.8 million player for 2016 if he accepts the offer. More likely, he would refuse because he knows there is a market for him and the Mets get the pick.

Also, how many playoff teams would not give a oneyear qualifying offer to its No. 3 hitter — particularly when its cleanup hitter (Yoenis Cespedes) also is a free agent?

Murphy would f it many teams, maybe even the Yankees at second. But as executives tried to guess (and these were guesses, not hard information) where Murphy could land, three teams came up most often: the Astros, Dodgers and Angels.