Why Hill Gets Little Love
Voters don’t want ‘experience’
NYOUNGSTOWN, PA. ATHAN Nemick voted for Bernie Sanders in the Pennsylvania primary, but the young Democrat can’t support the Democrat who won the nomination, Hillary Clinton.
“Her campaign is all about her, and there is nothing about what she has done in her years in politics that has any concrete value for me,” the 33-year-old says. He’s voting for Donald Trump.
Nemick’s viewpoint is shared by many Democrats outside the big cities. And it’s confounded not only the political class inside those cities but Clinton herself.
The nominee crystalized that frustration when she closed a videotaped message to labor groups in Las Vegas: “So having said all that, why aren’t I 50 points ahead, you might ask?”
“The reason is pretty simple: She has not identified any tangible benefits for the voters in her campaign message,” explains Republican strategist Brad Todd of OnMessage, one of the country’s most sought after GOP ad-makers.
“Everyone keeps talking about why she is not 50 points ahead of this guy. She even wonders that herself,” says Todd. But Clinton “has made this campaign entirely about her and her accomplishments.” So when she has a bad day as a candidate, it’s devastating. On the other hand, when Trump has a bad day it doesn’t hurt him.
“For Trump, even on his very worst day, his campaign knows they get change out of the equation,” says Todd. “With [Clinton, voters] get the experience, and someone who is not Trump.”
Yet, that’s the exact opposite of what voters want this year; there is just no market for experience. Rather than a benefit, it’s a determent. But the Clinton campaign keeps selling it anyway — so the race is close.
Baylor University political science professor Curt Nichols, an expert on American populism, agrees. “What she’s looking to sell isn’t very interesting to buyers, her strengths are tenacity and experience. And her novelty is being the first female [major-party] presidential candidate,” he said. “Her skills and cache simply continue not to match well with what the electorate wants.”
With Bill Clinton the tangible benefit for voters was the middle- class tax cuts. With George W. Bush, it was restoring honesty and integrity to the White House. The second time around, it was keeping American safe. With Barack Obama it was about hope and change. But with Clinton, it’s just her resume. “There is nothing in the campaign for the voter,” says Nichols.
Clinton’s tactic is commonly used by incumbents in races for Congress. Senators, especially, rely on it, because they love to run on “look what I’ve done, look at my resume.”
But voters won’t give you much benefit for that. They think that’s why they elected you in the first place. “The next time around, you have to tell them what is in it for them,” says Todd.
Voters don’t see elections as a reward for politicians but as a contract about what the candidates are going to do going forward. If you don’t offer them a tangible benefit for voting for you, or capture their interest, don’t bother even asking for their vote.
All of which reinforces what Nemick says about Clinton. With Bernie, the campaign was about the voters. Same with Trump; he may not offer them details, but he certainly offers benefits: He’ll make America great and strong again and transform it to a position of prosperity and strength.
In short, this election is about change, and Trump embodies change, says Todd. “You may have some trepidation about the change, but it will be change.” Clinton offers her experience — and more of the same — but these are not in vogue.
Todd isn’t surprised by Clinton’s tact, “because the reason she thinks she should be president is because ‘it is her turn, dammit.’ ” Voters have no appetite for that today. There is no “next in line” or “it’s my turn” currency.
Some of this might have worked if there was a national consensus for a third Obama term. But there isn’t. So voters are breaking toward him. He may not be the nation’s favorite, across the board. But this is why the race — at the moment, anyway — is tied.
With Hillary’s structural advantage in the Electoral College, there’s no telling if this base of support for Trump will be enough to win him the White House, says Nichols. “But, no one has yet won by betting against the guy who has best tapped into populist frustrations during this nearly unprecedented electoral season.”