THE LOVE STACK!
A little old place where Bears play together
SOMETIMES, it pays to be d i ffe re n t . On occasion, you need to go against the grain. If you follow the crowd, you end up mired among the masses rather than standing comfortably by yourself.
Thus the inspiration for contrarian fantasy plays, particularly in large daily fantasy guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). Yo u select p l ay - ers most others aren’t. You take a stab at a less likely outcome knowing if that unlikely outcomes occurs, you distance yourself much further from the field than if you play a lot of chalk.
For example: Those who used Trevor Siemian last week in DFS were in great shape to reach well above the payline. His usage rate was very low — 0.2 percent in the $3 Play-Action tournament at Draft Kings. Ryan Tannehill, at a higher price and in a better matchup “on paper” against the Browns, was owned by 11.5 percent. Then Siemian outscored Tannehill, 31.98 to 24.96.
You don’t want to invest heavily in a specific contrarian approach. And, to paraphrase the 2008 film “Tropic Thunder,” you never go full contrarian. You can’t play more than four from a ny one team anyway, and normally we cap our stacks at three. What you want to do is f ind some players from one team who are likely to have low usage rates and hope that team gets in a shootout. Then fill the other spots accordingly with confidence plays, without concern about usage rates.
Like, say, the Bears this week. Much of the public will be down on the Bears after injuries to starting quarterback Jay Cutler and starting running back Jeremy Langford. But the Madman would argue they get upgrades at both positions in Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard.
Plus, they are playing a Lions team that has given up 10 touchdown passes through three games — tied for the league high — to just one interception, and opposing QBs have a league-high 120.2 passer rating.
It appears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery (knee) will play. Hoyer looked to second WR Kevin White often last week (14 targets overall). He got tight end Zach Miller involved (eighth catches for 78 yards, two touchdowns).
Sure, a roster built in this fashion easily could go bust. But if it doesn’t? Your chalk team might battle to win enough to cover your entry fe e, but a contrarian lineup could net a fortune.