SCOUTING THE SERIES
The Post’s Joel Sherman breaks down strengths and weaknesses of championship opponents
T HEO Epstein and Terry Francona probably have their eventual Hall of Fame enshrinements assured with the work they did together on two Red Sox championships and apart getting the Cubs and Indians to this World Series. A victory in this Fall Classic, though, would end any debate. So will the Cubs, constructed by Epstein, end their title-less drought since 1908, or will the Indians, managed by Francona, end their championship-free spell since 1948?
The winner gets the 2016 parade and, perhaps, so much more. Here is a scouting report digging deeper into the teams of Epstein and Francona:
TURN THE SWITCH
The lineup diversity of both teams is really good. “They are both very hard to match up against,” said a scout, who was doing advance work in the playoffs. Both clubs have excellent lefty-righty balance up and down the lineup, but as the advance scout said, “The switch hitters really take it to another level.”
There were six switch hitters who came to the plate at least 100 times from each side and had an .800 OPS or better from each side, and three are in this series: Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist (right) for the Cubs and Jose Ramirez for the Indians. Cleveland also has strong switch hitters in Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana, plus Coco Crisp has had some big postseason moments.
“You have to have relievers who can get the opposite side out against Cleveland,” the advance man said.
That could elevate the importance of lefty Travis Wood, who does a good job vs. righties, and righty Carl Edwards Jr., who does a good job vs. lefties. In these playoffs, Cubs manager Joe Maddon has not seemed fully to trust his regular righty setup men, Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon.
MILLER TIME
Obviously, every team in every game ever played wanted to lead after five innings. But that never has been more pertinent than against the Indians in these playoffs as Andrew Miller (right) as emerged as the biggest difference-maker of the postseason. He has entered games in the fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth innings, never getting fewer than four outs and one time getting as many as eight. Miller has faced 41 batters and struck out 21. In his postseason career, he now has 12 outings and 20 scoreless innings. “Here is the thing everyone forgets: Francona can be aggressive with Miller because Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw are really good,” an AL executive said. “It would be harder to burn Miller in the fifth, sixth or even the seventh if Cleveland was sitting with just average Joes behind him.” Still, the Cubs are going to have to contend with Miller, and another AL executive said: “Honestly, when he is on, it is the most dominating look in the sport. He is hard to pick up. His slider is just a razor blade that he can backdoor for a strike [to a righty] or bury at your feet, and the most you can hope to do is roll it over and hope it finds a hole into the outfield. You just hope he elevates it and you don’t miss it. But let’s face it, you dread seeing him come into a game, and now when he is in a groove, the dread is even worse.”
OFF TO THE RACES
The Indians have accentuated in the playoffs what a good base-running team they are. One scout said “It is not just steals, though they are good at that. It is that when they can go first to third, they do. They will make you pay for the ball in the dirt that rolls a little too far from the catcher.” The Dodgers’ plan against Cubs lefty Jon Lester, who does not throw to bases, was to test him as much as possible. But they did more dancing off of the bases than running, and that seemed to distract their own hitters. Lester does an excellent job holding his set, changing his timing and staring down runners, who instinctively — despite the evidence — cannot fully commit to the idea he will not throw over. Also, all the Cubs catchers love to try backdoor pickoff plays — specifically David Ross at first and Willson Contreras at second. The reality is none of the Cubs starters is good at shutting down a running game, and Jake Arrieta actually is worse than Lester. He is slow from the stretch, and his stuff lacks crispness when he slide-steps. The Indians also led the AL in steals of third. Rajai Davis (above) led the league with 13, while Ramirez had nine. Davis could be a key figure in this series. He never has batted against Kyle Hendricks, but against the Cubs’ other three starters (Arrieta, Lester and John Lackey), Davis is a combined 29-for-91 (.319) with 11 extra-base hits. “It is not about distracting Lester and their pitchers. It is about using the running game to score runs,” an NL executive said. “The Indians are much more equipped to do that than the Dodgers.”
FROM THE TOP
Scouts praise the Cubs for the ability to make at-bat-to-at-bat adjustments. Even free swingers such as Javier Baez and Contreras are having tougher at-bats now. Kris Bryant and especially Ben Zobrist really can work an at-bat, and the Cubs can get power from just about anywhere in the order. “They can mentally wear you out,” one NL scout said. But the scouts were in unison that controlling Fowler (left) from the leadoff spot is vital. “When he is good,” one scout explained, “they are almost always good.” The Cubs won the final three games of the NLCS. Fowler had two hits in each and had a combined four runs scored and three RBIs in those games. There were three items that came up about being effective against Fowler: top-end velocity, pitching hard inside and staying ahead in the count.
ROTATION ROULETTE
Both managers will have itchy fingers to get their bullpens involved for every starter except Lester and Hendricks for the Cubs and Corey Kluber and, perhaps, Josh Tomlin for the Indians. Both teams have deep pens. Both have dominant lefties (Miller and Aroldis Chapman) supplied by the Yankees at the trade deadline. Both know the benefits of having an off-day after Game 2 and — if necessary — after Game 5. Still, the Indians in particular have been in their pen early and often. Relievers had thrown 46.2 percent of their postseason innings. Can that strategy endure for one more round?