NOW VS. LATER
T Ranking MLB teams’ desire to win immediately
HINK OF urgency l i ke butane to the Hot Stove. The more urgent a team is to win or rebuild, the more motivated they are to act.
That is why the most natural matches in trades are those on the opposite end of the spectrums — a go-for-it team acquiring winnow (often expensive) players from a rebuilding club trying to add prospects, shed payroll and speed up their process.
So going into the winter meetings this week, we offer Hardball’s 1-to-30 list ranked from those most pressing to go for it to the least. This is different from listing best-to-worst rosters. This is about which clubs are most primed to do business because they feel that unbridled urgency to win now, all the way down to those likely to sell because their playoff horizons are not 2017:
1. Nationals
The clock is ticking on Bryce Harper (free agent after 2018, same as Daniel Murphy). Max Scherzer is a brilliant ace now. They have won the NL East three times in five years without winning a playoff round. They are in on Chris Sale, Mark Melancon, Andrew McCutchen and plenty more.
2. Astros
They already have added McCann, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Charlie Morton. Thus, they have added the lefty element/veteran presence they wanted for their lineup. Now they are focused on a top starter to capitalize on a win-now everyday core (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and George Springer) in its prime.
3. Mets
They saw last year that their starting pitching brilliance will not last forever. They just gave the second-largest per-annum positional contract to Yoenis Cespedes and a $17.2 million qualifying offer to retain Neil Walker. They will find a reliever or two. Sandy Alderson has demonstrated when his teams are in position to win, he will step on the gas pedal.
4. Red Sox
Like the Cubs, their heavy lifting (Craig Kimbrel, David Price and Drew Pomeranz) was done last offseason and at the trade deadline. Unlike the Cubs, the Red Sox did not win a championship. So they have to think more seriously about that treasure trove of prospects and whether to play for a big starter like Chris Sale.
5. Rangers
Yu Darvish and Jonathan Lucroy are free agents after 2017. Adrian Beltre turns 38 in April and Cole Hamels 33 later this month. They have stripped a lot of farm depth trying to win the organization’s first title, and only have gotten close. They see the Astros revving up to try to take over the AL West.
6. Dodgers
Like the Yankees, they are trying to balance winning today with contending for a long time. So they have protected their best prospects and watched longterm dollars in a more significant way. But they are title-less since 1988 and at the least they are trying to figure a way to retain Rich Hill. Kenley Jansen (or get Aroldis Chapman) and Justin Turner.
7. Blue Jays
They likely are transitioning away from Jose Bautista and Encarnacion and trying to figure out a way to restock a depleted farm system (Lourdes Gourriel). But they added Kendrys Morales and almost certainly will find another bat (or two) to augment Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki.
8. Mariners
No team has gone l onger without the playoffs ( 2001). General manager Jerry Dipoto inherited Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Felix Hernandez and decided to go for it with them last year by getting deeper. Turning the long-term potential of Taijuan Walker into a solution at shorts top/leadoff ( Jean Segura) showed Seattle’s mindset.
9. Giants
They were eliminated in the Division Series by the Cubs in part because their bullpen collapsed. So the expectation is they will add one of the big closers (Chapman, Jansen or Mark Melancon) and maybe someone such as Greg Holland, too. Plus, they want to add some pop in left field, maybe an Ian Desmond type.
10. Cubs
They no l onger have the weight of 1908 on them. But this is a team now thinking dynasty. They can wait out the market a little and see what falls to them, especially bullpen pieces or a long-term starter.
11. Cardinals
They are trying to take a wealth of positional options and forge a better overall defensive team. One way would be to sign Dexter Fowler as a free agent to man center. They are heading toward their last rodeos with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. They have money and positional depth to address issues.
12. Yankees
Unlike last offseason, when they stayed out of the free agent market, the Yanks are pushing harder. They see closer (Chapman?) and DH (Edwin Encarnacion, Mike Napoli?) as areas they can make upgrades without blocking the bevy of prospects they want to see play. I am less sold they are interested in Rich Hill, though they would like to add some surer rotation innings.
13. Orioles
Zach Britton, Adam Jones and Manny Machado are free agents after 2018. They have four starters who will be free agents after 2017, notably Chris Tillman. They would become a fascinating seller if they were out of it in July. For now, though, they are trying to win.
14. Marlins
They have a poor farm system and no desire to significantly raise payroll. But they feel they have a win-now positional group, so rather than retreat after the death of Jose Fernandez, they still are trying, signing Edinson Volquez and considering other depth options for the rotation and pen, and dabbling even in Jansen (who played for manager Don Mattingly with the Dodgers).
15. Indians
So close to their first title since 1948. They are hoping health for Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar and a full season of Andrew Miller are their major additions, but they should have a few extra dollars to spend to either retain Mike Napoli or replace him. That this is the first AL Central team accentuates where the mindset of most of the rest of this division is.
16. Braves
They recognize their best contending years likely don’t start before 2018. But they are heading into a new stadium and want to win more often. So they have added Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Jaime Garcia and Sean Rodriguez, and are seeing if their farm depth could land a top starter such as Sale or Chris Archer.
17. Pirates
They are determined to trade the face of the franchise, McCutchen, move Starling Marte to center, eventually insert prospect Austin Meadows to a corner outfield slot and reinvest the $28.5 million in 2017-18 owed McCutchen in different areas all as a way to try to extend their period as a contender.
18. Royals
They are in a tough spot. They want to try to win. But ownership is asking at least $10 million be trimmed from the payroll and so much of their core — Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Danny Duffy, Alcides Escobar, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas — are entering their walk year. They are another team to watch between now and the trade deadline as potentially a significant seller.
19. Rays
They are going to trade a starter (Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly are the probabilities), but they believe their rotation is strong enough to contend if they can deepen their pen and add another bat. But it is all being done on a shoestring.
20. Tigers
They want to trade Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann, but the interest is in Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Mar- tinez, Victor Martinez and Justin Verlander. They say they are open for business, but they are not used to selling and do they end up trying to win one more year?
21. Rockies
They have a talented nucleus, including a group of rising starting pitchers. They could try to augment that even as they consider trading Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez.
22. Angels
They should be rebuilding, but owner Arte Moreno is not in that mindset. Until they are significantly better, offseasons will begin with questions if they are ready to trade Mike Trout. The answer right now is no. Instead, they have some money with Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson gone, and Josh Hamilton a year away from coming off the books. But they need so much, especially lots more pitching, and they have among the majors’ worst farm systems.
23. Diamondbacks
They have a good enough core with Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Jake Lamb and Zack Greinke to do some selling of guys like Segura and still hold enough to try to win, and then reassess at the July trade deadline.
24. White Sox
Rather than take one more shot at winning with the talented, but mismatched roster, the White Sox appear ready to sell with Sale the biggest piece, and others such as Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier and David Robertson also available.
25. Phillies
They will take one-year flyers on the Pat Nesheks and Howie Kendricks, but they are a year away from really elevating payroll to go for it.
26. Brewers
Made an interesting upside play with Eric Thames, who became a home-run machine in Korea. Still, in the short term the Brewers want to run out Matt Garza’s contract and see if there is a trade to be made for Ryan Braun.
27. A’s
They are open for business on Sean Doolittle and Sonny Gray, as they try to deepen a growing crop of intriguing prospects.
28. Reds
They mistimed the market by holding too long on players such as Chapman and Frazier. They do not seem inclined to even try to trade Joey Votto (seven years, $179 million) and might not be able to find a taker for Brandon Phillips (one year, $14 million) if he even agreed to waive his no-trade. Could they move Billy Hamilton or Rasiel Iglesias?
29. Twins
A new tandem atop baseball ops (Derek Falvey/Thad Levine) signals the direction. They did invest $24.5 million to land catcher Jason Castro, but even that was about nurturing pitchers. They have Brian Dozier to trade.
30. Padres
Two offseasons ago, t hey were all systems go. Since then their team president was dismissed, their GM suspended for a month, they have played 40 games under . 500 and had to absorb huge portions of contracts to rid themselves of players such as James Shields and Melvin Upton Jr. Two trades with Boston and a deep dive into the international market launched their rebuild. They don’t have much else to sell, but a few relievers, including lefty Brad Hand.