SWIM WITH THE ’FINS
TODD Bowles offered an interesting bit of coachspeak when asked about the Dolphins’ loss of Ryan Tannehill. The Jets coach said his preparation to face backup Matt Moore isn’t any different because “it’s not about the quarterback, it’s about the system.”
In this case, Bowles’ is correct. If he were referring to Andrew Luck and Scott Tolzien, he would be full of it, but there’s not a ton of difference between Tannehill and Moore.
The Dolphins, a common opponents tiebreaker away from an AFC wild-card berth, will come north with a purpose, and should have use of everyone beyond Tannehill and center Mike Pouncey, who’s out for the year. The Jets' comeback win over the 49ers was great for their sanity, but proved little beyond what a train wreck the 49ers are. They have a longer list of key players who did not practice through the week. The schedule could play a part, too. The Jets will have gone on Monday night against the Colts, traveled cross-country to face the 49ers and now play Saturday night in the span of 13 days.
The pick: Dolphins, -2.
SUNDAY Lions (+4) over GIANTS: Seven Giants games and eight Lions games this season have been decided by five points or fewer. So it’s reasonable to expect an extremely close game, but can see the Giants pulling it out with a late interception of Matthew Stafford, who will play with a broken middle finger on his throwing hand.
Steelers (-3) over BENGALS: Cincinnati saved some face with wins over the reeling Eagles and Browns, but you can’t mess with the Steelers right now with Le’Veon Bell killin’ it on the ground and the ever-dangerous Big Ben to Antonio Brown gravy train on the track.
RAVENS (-51/2) over Eagles: Philly perked up a bit against the rival Redskins, but that 27-22 loss may have been the last stand in a season that went south after a 3-0 start. The Ravens can extend here as they chase the Steelers in the AFC North
BEARS: (+51/2) over Packers: The Bears are what we thought they were. They’re terrible and the Packers are hot and in the playoff hunt. But this is a weather hunch. We’re looking at a 5-below wind chill at Soldier Field, and Aaron Rodgers already is limping around badly on a tight calf, which figures to tighten this outcome.
VIKINGS (-4) over Colts: The Vikings’ defensive line against the Colts’ suspect offensive line can make this a work hazard for Luck, who already comes in with injuries to his throwing shoulder and elbow.
BILLS (-10) over Browns: It looks as if Rex Ryan will survive the week and get to start Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Ryan will try to win this one by a hundred points in a desperate bid to keep his job.
CHIEFS (-51/2) over Titans: It has been a great season for the Titans, who are tied for first in the AFC South. But have this nagging feeling that Marcus Mariota, who has 25 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions, is going to have one or two balls taken back the other way this week by the ballhawking Chiefs.
TEXANS (-6) over Jaguars: Maybe one of these weeks the Jaguars will cover (they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight), or, perish the thought, actually win (they have lost eight in a row). But to collect on them you would have to bet on coach who is 14-47 and a quarterback who has more picksixes than wins in their careers.
Saints (+2½) over CARDINALS: The Saints have won at San Diego and covered at the Giants and Chiefs, and hung very tough with the Buccaneers last week in Tampa. Cardinals are out of it and may have a “who cares?” mindset after releasing receiver Michael Floyd following a DUI arrest.
FALCONS (-14) over 49ers: Spread’s over the top, but the alternative is to take a 1-12 team that’s traveling cross-country after blowing a 17-0 lead and losing to another terrible team.
Patriots (-3) over BRONCOS: Take away Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, and Tom Brady makes a 129-yard star out of Wyckoff, N.J.’s Chris Hogan. Broncos can’t run it as well as they used to, and this is suspect Trevor Siemian against Brady in a game in which the Patriots have a revenge motive for last year’s playoff loss.
Raiders (-3) over CHARGERS: Tough call, but the Raiders have some extra time after their loss at Kansas City, and the Chargers will be without running back Melvin Gordon and defensive end Joey Bosa.
Buccaneers (+7) over COWBOYS: Many are expecting a big bounce-back for the Dallas offense after it managed to score just 24 points combined in games at the Vikings and Giants. But the Buccaneers’ defense has been tough, allowing 17 points to the Chiefs, five to the Seahawks and 11 to the Saints as part of a five-game winning streak. MONDAY NIGHT Panthers (+6½) over REDSKINS: As one-time NYC mayoral candidate Jimmy McMillan may have said, “The spread is too damn high!” Panthers are out of contention, but still play hard and tough every week, and the Redskins are good but flawed defensively. BEST BETS: Ravens, Dolphins, Panthers. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Ravens (Locks 6-8 in 2016). LAST WEEK: 9-6-1 Overall, 3-0 Best Bets. THURSDAY NIGHT: Seahawks (W).