Retailers count on a colder winter

Colder temps with snow and wind during the holiday season could lift December apparel sales compared to last year, according to the latest projections from weather intelligence and analysis company Planalytics show.

Planalytics began sounding the alarm for cold weather on Dec. 1, first anticipating a $107 million sales increase between Dec. 4 and Dec. 10, then a $243 million weather-driven sales boost for the first half of the month.

“It looks like this December will be the coldest in at least four years,” said Evan Gold, executive vice president of global services at Planalytics. The colder winter comes after a warm November.

In the society that we’re living in, “weather becomes the largest external driver of need,” Gold said. With winter weather setting in, shoppers are once again reaching for items like coats, gloves and scarves. Most of the $350 million that Planalytics forecasts will be generated on the East Coast, according to Gold.

Moreover, necessity will prompt shoppers to pay a little more, generating higher margin sales.

“Winter isn’t coming. Winter is here,” said Gold. “Because we’re in a buy-now, wear-now mentality, customers will spend more money on a coat.”

Last year was the warmest December on record, notes Gold. Many retailers, including Macy’s and Burlington Stores, said the unseasonable weather hurt sales for the season.

JCPenney has said that it switched up its merchandise mix in order to move away from “weather-sensitive categories” like apparel.

Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s said outdoor sales actually got a positive jolt from the warm weather.

“Retailers need enough snow to get in that winter mindset, but not so much that keeps people away,” said Gold. “It provides a helpful environment.”

Terry Lundgren, Macy’s chief executive, expressed a similar sentiment when MarketWatch spoke with him over the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

“I can’t ask for complete perfection here, but if I could, it would be a light snow at night,” he said at the time.