‘Recency bias’ will ruin your season
AT THIS time of year, most fantasy experts will advise you to play the hot hand and make those tough cuts when necessary. If DeAndre Hopkins isn’t producing and thirdstringer Robby Anderson is, you go with Anderson. If Allen Robinson hasn’t scored a touchdown in three weeks but Taylor Gabriel has four in that span, you go with Gabriel.
But sometimes there aren’t enough of those late-season surprises to go around and fantasy owners are forced to dig deeper. Not deeper into the teams’ rosters, but into the fantasy past.
You might have heard the term “recency bias” thrown around quite a bit. What it means is fantasy football owners have very short memories. A running back could have f ive straight games of 75 yards and a touchdown, b ut if his most recent performance was 12 carries for 18 yards and no touchdown, fantasy owners immediately are soured and will have no qualms about leaving that player on the bench the following week. How many times has that come back to bite you?
Sometimes the bias goes a little deeper and without even looking at opportunity or matchups. Fantasy owners ignore the names of players who simply have not been in the headlines for some time. We’re not talking about those who sat Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks due to quiet games and poor road splits. We’re not even talking about those who missed out on Ty Montgomery. Concussion or no concussion for James Starks, no one saw Montgomery busting out for 162 yards and two touchdowns.
Maybe he was forgotten, but he was never a dynamic fantasy option in the first place. We’re talking about players who helped you win earlier this season but were somehow pushed out of the limelight.
When the season opened, Ryan Mathews, though labeled as injury-prone, still managed a few good games before Eagles coach Doug Pederson tried to get cute and switch to a committee approach. But with Darren Sproles concussed and Wendell Smallwood on injured reserve, Mathews was the sole option against a Ravens run defense that was starting to soften. His 128 yards and touchdown likely adorned many a fantasy bench this week.
How about Titans receiver Rishard Matthews? En route to a career year, his late-season bye and quiet Week 14 game against Denver’s No-Fly Zone took him off everyone’s radar. He may not have scored, but 10 catches for 105 yards is gold in any format. Or how about Alshon Jeffery just back from suspension? Or Chargers wideout Travis Benjamin, who finally shook his knee issues? Both had great promise coming into the season and solid opportunities walking into Week 15.
Though the flavor-of-the-week can be helpful this time of the year, you don’t need to chase them to win. Fantasy owners have short memories and you should take advantage. Lazy owners remember the last two weeks. Champions remember it all.