Phillin' the tank
Fightin’s clawing way out of payroll hell
THE Phillies acquired Clay Buchholz from the Red Sox on Tuesday. In itself, it is not much of a pre-Christmas transaction.
But taken in the larger context of Philadelphia’s offseason, it was another step away from being a serial tanker.
There are no rules against tanking. It works when done right as shown by the Astros and, more resoundingly, the Cubs. The bottoming out of payroll combined with high draft picks and larger pools of dollars to spend internationally done for several years should bring lots of talent.
However, patrons are still being charged for tickets. Opponents are still trying to gain playoff spots. And having teams purposely losing not games, but whole seasons — and multiple seasons — if not the Black Sox is a black eye for the sport.
So I appreciate this Phillies strategy as a detour away from yet another year of purposefully being terrible. Philadelphia has essentially been accumulating useful-or-better veterans one year from free agency. None will block a prospect. None will disrupt long-term payroll. In totality, they should help the Phillies be more competitive. And come July most should have value as trade chips that could net the Phillies pieces closer to the ma- jors than more draft picks.
The Phillies gave up none of their best prospects from a deep base to obtain Howie Kendrick (due $10 million on the final year of his contract), Pat Neshek ($6.5 million), and now Buchholz ($13.5 million) for second baseman Josh Tobias. They also gave the $17.2 million qualifying offer to Jeremy Hellickson and signed free agent Joaquin Benoit for one year at $7.5 million
With that, their payroll projects to be about $65 million, so they could still capitalize on the oversaturated slugger market and likely find a useful one-year power bat before this offseason is over. Someone such as Colby Rasmus would fit them well.
The Phillies still are likely to be among the majors’ 10 worst teams, which will mean a top-10 pick in 2018 (they pick eighth in 2017). But after a couple of difficult seasons breaking up what once was a championship core and divesting themselves of big contracts, they are set up to be way more competitive in 2017 and add more useful pieces at the deadline all while doing no long-term harm. The recent fiveyear, $30.5 million deal the Phil- lies did with Odubel Herrera (25 next week) is the only money they have committed to a player beyond this year.
As recently as 2014, the Phillies had a $180 million payroll and were third in the majors behind only the Dodgers and Yankees. Thus, the Phillies have shown where they can go when the time is right and that will position them well for what projects to be a starry freeagent class after the 2018 campaign. A few more thoughts out of this trade:
1. That the Phillies, Braves and Marlins have all been trying to bolster their teams this offseason — notably their pitching — will make it more difficult for the Nationals and Mets just to cakewalk through the weaker NL East teams. The Nats and Mets were a combined 26-12 against the Phillies last year, as an example.
2. The Braves began their rebuild earlier than the Phillies and committed to it in a stronger way, but I think it is possible the Phillies could produce a sustained winner quicker and better, in part because of their ability/willingness to spend more when the time is right.
3. Buchholz’s overall numbers (8-10, 4.78) were not very good, but he pitched better late in the season and had a 3.26 ERA in 18 2015 starts. Buchholz should join Hellickson, Jared Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez in a good rotation while also providing the Phillies more time to develop starters such as Alec Asher, Zach Elfin and Jake Thompson.
4. That the Red Sox got one not very special prospect as a way to expunge the $13.5 million of Buchholz is perhaps a signal of what the Mets will have to do if they want to just get out of the $13 million owed to Jay Bruce. Bruce had a better 2016 than Buchholz, but starting pitching is way more in demand than slugging corner outfielders.
5. Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski told me in a text the Red Sox did not remove Buchholz’s salary to open dollars to pursue a slugger such as Edwin Encarnacion to replace David Ortiz. Instead, this move slid Boston more comfortably under the luxury-tax threshold and also unbundled their cluttered rotation. Boston now has the recently obtained Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price as the sure things for the rotation with Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Stephen Wright competing for the final two slots.