ACEY DICEY
THE YANKEES probably can’t win in 2017 unless Masahiro Tanaka performs again like a top-of-the-rotation stalwart — but that might make winning in 2018 more difficult. Tanaka can opt out of his seven-year, $155 million contract after next season, and short of significant injury, the right-hander almost certainly will. He is due three years at $67 million after 2017. Consider that Rich Hill — oft-injured, 37-in-March, hasn’t qualified for the ERA title since 2007 Rich Hill — signed a three-year, $48 million free-agent pact this offseason to stay with the Dodgers (albeit in a terrible year for free-agent starters, which will not be the case next offseason). So even though Tanaka was diagnosed in July 2014 with a partially torn UCL and has shown he is far more effective working on more than the standard four days’ rest, he would be in line to top three years at $67 million. He is only 28. He just came off his best MLB season, going 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA and — most important — making 31 starts. Another season like that would help the 2017 Yankees, but probably would allow Tanaka to command a five-year contract — possibly more — after opting out. So what would be good for the Yankees would be very good for Tanaka, especially because of how the Yankees are structured. Tanaka, Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia accounted for 60.6 percent of the innings thrown by Yankees starters in 2016. All will be free agents after next season. And the pitcher who was fourth on the Yankees in innings, Nathan Eovaldi, would have been a free agent after 2017 had he not needed Tommy John surgery and been released because he is unlikely to pitch next season.
Thus, the Yankees have three starters in their walk years and a bunch of untested entities such as Luis Cessa, Chad Green, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Severino. For the good of the franchise — particularly beyond 2017 — the Yankees will need a couple of those youngsters, along with Chance Adams, James Kaprielian and Justus Sheffield, to become rotation mainstays. But right now, the Yankees are looking at nothing close to a sure thing for their 2018 rotation, which is among the many reasons they have stayed in contact with the White Sox about Jose Quintana, who has topped 200 innings in each of the past four seasons and is signed for four more at a teamfriendly $35.35 million. To date, the Yankees have found the White Sox’s prospect request too high.
The Yankees are in that middle ground of wanting to turn over the roster in order to get younger and more financially flexible, while still winning. That makes them hesitant to give up too many of the well-regarded prospects they have accumulated. But if a few of their young starters do not flourish, they will be forced to find solutions.
One might be simply keeping Tanaka. But Sabathia works against that. Sabathia
had the ability to opt out after three brilliant seasons (2009-11, 59-23, 3.11 ERA) of his initial seven-year pact. The Yankees, without great alternatives, redid the contract to be worth $142 million over the next six years with his vesting 2017 option picked up. The lefty is 47-45 with a 4.25 ERA in the first five seasons of that deal, which has been filled with his decline physically and in production.
Yet, it is not inconceivable, if Sabathia continues to morph into a version of Andy Pettitte (he did make 30 starts last year and had a 2.37 ERA in his final eight) that Sabathia could — like Pettitte — continue to sign one-year deals to stay where he prefers. But that would be to serve as a steadying veteran (brittle knees permitting).
The Yankees likely will have to decide about obtaining a top-of-the-rotation piece. That could include trying to keep Tanaka or even Pineda if his results ever mirror his skills (Pineda turns 28 this month). Also, as opposed to this offseason, next winter promises a stronger free-agent class with Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Danny Duffy, Chris Tillman and Johnny Cueto (should Cueto opt out of his contract). Also, we will see whether or not Japanese star Shohei Otani tries to come to MLB.
One other possibility that exists for the Yankees: If they are not contenders in 2017, they could do what they did in 2016 at the trade deadline — deal to build up the farm base — just with starters rather than relievers (Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller). However, Sabathia and Tanaka both have complete no-trade clauses.
Thus, in 2017, the Yankees need Tanaka to be great — regardless of the long-term costs.