RIGHTS & WRONGS
Madman picks, from marvelous to maddening
WIDE receivers do minated the early picks in this season’s fantasy football drafts. Why shouldn’t they, after top running backs routinely went bust in 2015?
But then, once the 2016 season started, RBs made a huge rally. They overtook WRs atop the fantasy scoring leaderboard, even in points-per-reception leagues. They stiff-armed the newly born zero-RB theory. They set the stage for a throwback draft next season in which RBs again will populate the top several picks.
Hitting on early consensus picks or missing on late-round fliers is commonplace. We’re more interested in the lateround home runs and early round whiffs. Here is a look at some of the Madman’s best and worst picks throughout the year, narrowed to just rest-of-season forecasts.
I TOLD YOU SO
Jordan Howard: We picked the Bears rookie as our favorite sleeper RB, and he delivered, stealing the job from Jeremy Langford even earlier than we expected. He had an average draft position in the late 120s in 12-team standard and PPR
leagues, yet finished in the top 10 among RBs in both.
Rishard Matthews: Pegged the Titans WR as a late-round target. He finished in the top 15 in standard and top 20 in PPR among WRs.
Kelvin Benjamin: A lot of fantasy folks had Benjamin slated for a big comeback season. The Madman was not among them. We had him slated 10 spots lower than his ADP. Turns out, even that was not low enough. But at least if you waited, as we suggested, you couldn’t have gotten him anyway.
Michael Crab tree: We marked him as one of our favorite mid-round grabs. He finished in the top 12 in standard and PPR leagues.
Carson Wentz: After Week 3, the Madman warned of a coming regression. As it turned out, he already had posted two of his three best fantasy outings.
Other mentions that worked out: Late QB picks Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr;
avoid Jeremy Langford, Tyler Lockett, Ryan Mathews.
EATING CROW
Ezekiel Elliott: Had worries the rookie wouldn’t get a full workload from the get-go. If you listened to us and waited for him to slip, which he didn’t, you missed out. Devon ta Freeman: Tevin Coleman didn’t steal as much as expected, and we underrated the Falcons’ offense in general. J ordy Nelson: Wasn’t certain he could return to previous form. Well, he did. Nice job Jordy, terrible job Madman.
Eli Manning: Loved him as a value pick in the late middle rounds. Didn’t live up, and there were much better QBs selected later.
DeMarco Murray: Expected a lot more Derrick Henry. Lateseason slump by Murray doesn’t make up for underselling.
Kamar Aiken: An example of being better off the more wrong you are. This wrong sleeper call was so obviously wrong so early in the season, it was easy to recover from a wasted late-round pick.
Other mentions that missed: even moderate success in Jamaal Charles’ return; underrated Dak
Prescott; bad suggestion to sell high on Falcons after Week 5, and
Melvin Gordon after Week 7;
missed big on Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson.