Top prospects never a sure thing

IN A FEW weeks, the publications that do such things will be putting out top-100 prospect lists, which provide a service in sparking debate and giving a general idea of who are the best farmhands.

In 2011, for example, Baseball America had it right, ranking Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as 1-2. You know who was 3-4? Jesus Montero and Domonic Brown. You know what they did last year? Hit in the middle of the order — for the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons. Neither was promoted to the majors in 2016. Montero, who still must serve his second 50game suspension for a positive PED test, recently signed a minor league contract with the Orioles. Brown is unemployed.

This should be a reminder of how difficult it is to translate even elite skills into consistent major league success and that there should be few untouchable prospects. I cannot tell you how many fans tell me their team cannot trade a prospect they have never seen play, based on their placement on a list. The Yankees, for example, are likely to have five or more prospects on just about every top 100, which honors a plan for them to get younger, less expensive and more flexible. But the key now is great self-scouting, knowing the Derek Jeters and Andy Pettittes not to trade and the Russ Davises and Marty Janzens to deal. That is essential if they are going to become sustained championship contenders again.