STEELING THE SHOW
IT’S ALWAYS good to go into Championship Sunday on a high note, and last week’s combined 7-1 versus the spread and on the totals in this space certainly qualifies.
But it’s one thing to roar into the title games hot, as the Packers (eight wins in a row) and Steelers (nine wins in a row) are, but it’s another thing to keep the roll going for another three hours and continue on to the Super Bowl.
In the recent past, both of those teams have had massive postseason runs. In the 2005 season, the Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, won at Cincinnati, at Indianapolis and at Denver in the AFC Championship before going on to win Super Bowl XL. The 2010 Packers, led by Aaron Rodgers, won at Philadelphia, at Atlanta and at Chicago in the NFC title game before beating the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.
Again, they are being asked to win three conference playoff games, but this time the wild-card games for each were at home. So history says they can do it, but will they? The answers here are Packers, no, and Steelers, yes.
FALCONS (-5) over Packers; Under 60: All credit to the amazing Rodgers and the Packers for getting past the Giants and then knocking off the topseeded Cowboys in Big D, but there were large portions of both games which, if repeated, will not fly against the Falcons.
Namely, those were the first 27:40 against the Giants, when Big Blue led 6-0 and it should have been much more; and the last 26 minutes against the Cowboys, when they were outscored 18-6 and needed a Hail Mary sideline pass and Mason Crosby field goals of 56 and 52 yards to pull it out.
Jordy Nelson is hoping to return but as he admits, he’s “never played football with broken ribs.” Davante Adams is also iffy with what looked at the time to be a scary ankle injury, and rookie Geronimo Allison is dealing with a leg injury. If they all play, their sore spots surely will be targeted by the Falcons secondary. And with pass-rush- ing beast Vic Beasley Jr. (NFL-best 15½ sacks) in pursuit, Rodgers will be on the run and will need top games from all of those gimpy guys.
Matt Ryan’s 38 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in the regular season almost match Rodgers’ unreal 40 and 7, and Ryan has a better crew with him. The backfield duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is the perfect complement to elite receiver Julio Jones, and speedster Taylor Gabriel can take any play all the way if the defense loses track of him.
Falcons coach Dan Quinn, of Morristown, N.J., is a win away from the Super Bowl in his second season. The former Seahawks defensive coordinator was on the Jets’ list two years ago, but they selected Todd Bowles instead. Falcons, 31-23 Steelers (+6) over PATRIOTS; Under 501/2: While the Packers could be on their last legs, the Steelers go into Foxborough in fantastic form as they try to not only cover a fairly sizable number, but also to punch their ticket to Houston.
The Patriots do have some intangible advantages. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin gave them some bulletin-board fodder by calling them “a--holes” on Antonio Brown’s Facebook Live broadcast. As Tomlin also pointed out, they have a day and a half extra prep time for this game. And, let’s not forget, this is still the Tom Brady Deflategate Revenge Tour.
Brady had another fantastic season, but aside from him, big-load running back LeGarrette Blount and ubiquitous receiver Julian Edelman, the Patriots offense has been a little lackluster without Rob Gronkowski. They scored 34 points in the divisional win over the Texans, but 14 of those came on a 98-yard kick return and a 6-yard drive after an interception.
Bill Belichick is known for taking away an opposing offense’s biggest weapon, but he’ll have to pick his poison in concentrating on Brown or Le’Veon Bell. And if somehow the Patriots can control both, Ben Roethlisberger will have no qualms about throwing five passes in a row to tight end Jesse James, or taking off and running himself.
The spread strikes as too large because, while the Patriots have enjoyed some playoff blowouts, such as the 45-7 rout of the Colts in the actual Deflategate game two years ago, many of their ultra-high level matchups have produced close games. In their Belichick/Brady Super Bowls, the Patriots have won by three, three, three and four, and lost by three and four.
So the play here was going to be to take the points, but we’re going to go the rest of the way and predict an outright Steelers win.
Steelers, 26-24
LAST WEEK: 3-1 versus spread, 4-0 Over/Unders.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Falcons (Locks 8-11 in 2016).