THE MATCHUPS
Super Bowl LI at NRG Stadium will be the seventh time the NFL’s highest-scoring offense matched up in a Super Bowl against the league’s top-ranked scoring defense. If history is a guide, the Patriots are in good shape, because the No. 1 defense is 5-1 against the No. 1 offense.
To put Atlanta’s offensive production in perspective, the Patriots led the AFC in scoring with 441 points. That is 99 fewer points than the Falcons scored in the regular season. The Falcons take a six-game winning streak into this game, and in that streak they are averaging 39 points per game.
On defense, the Falcons, who start eight players with one or two years of NFL experience, are going to have to grow up in a hurry going against Tom Brady.
Here are the matchups:
PATRIOTS’ PASS OFFENSE vs. FALCONS’ PASS DEFENSE
Tom Brady threw 28 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in 12 regularseason games, and, if possible, is getting better with age. Julian Edelman (98 catches, 1,106 yards, 3 TDs) ran half his routes out of the slot and when he lines up inside will go against undrafted rookie nickel back Brian Poole. That’s a big advantage for Edelman. The Pats learned to do without injured tight end Rob Gronkowski with Martellus Bennett (55 catches) picking up much of the slack. The second-leading receiver is a running back, James White. College lacrosse player and New Jersey guy Chris Hogan (right) is a great story and a dangerous target — he averaged 17.9 yards per catch this season and will challenge corner Robert Alford, who replaced injured Desmond Trufant as the top cover-man on Atlanta’s defense. Cornerback Jalen Collins makes plays, but is part of a young secondary and Brady will use all his tricks to disguise what he is thinking and where he is going with the ball. Edge: Patriots
PATRIOTS’ RUN OFFENSE vs. FALCONS’ RUN DEFENSE
Who will it be for the Patriots? It figures to be the bruising LeGarrette Blount, who had 18 touchdowns in the regular season, but watch out for White (60 receptions) filling a dumpoff role for Brady (see Vereen, Shane, for details). Of course, it also could be Dion Lewis, who finally is healthy and is extremely versatile. With the Pats, you never know who will hit you, or when. This is the weakest part of Atlanta’s defense — the Falcons do not have the bulk to withstand a pounding and rookie linebackers Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell are better at running and hitting than standing and taking on blockers. Up front, the Falcons do not have any game-wreckers. The key will be if rookie safety Keanu Neal, the top runstopper, can get to the line of scrimmage. Edge: Patriots
FALCONS’ PASS OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS’ PASS DEFENSE
Matt Ryan connected with an NFL-record 13 different players for touchdowns this season, so this is far from merely a “throw-it-to-Julio’’ show. Of course, tossing it to Julio Jones is never a bad idea. He ripped apart the Packers in the NFC title game, but this likely will be a different story. Have you heard the one about Bill Belichick taking away the top threat on the other team? Malcolm Butler is the Patriots’ best cornerback, but they might opt to use the bigger Logan Ryan or the even bigger Eric Rowe on the towering Jones, providing help with a safety ( Devin McCourty?) over the top. That would allow Butler to cover Mohamed Sanu in man coverage, a good matchup for the Pats. Falcons backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman must be included here, as both are deadly running routes out of the backfield and also split out wide. Deep threat Taylor Gabriel had six TDs in the regular season and averaged 16.5 yards per catch. Ryan averaged an NFL-record 9.26 yards per pass attempt with receivers who can score quickly. The Patriots are not a sack-happy bunch; Defensive ends Trey Flowers (seven sacks) and Chris Long (four) lead up front. Edge: Falcons
FALCONS’ RUN OFFENSE vs. PATRIOTS’ RUN DEFENSE
Freeman (1,079 yards) is the leader oof the ground game. He averages 4.8 yards per carry and makes people miss. He shares the load with Coleman, who averaged 4.4 yards per carry and has the speed to turn a short run into a long one. The Falcons averaged 120.5 yards per game on the ground this season and the addition of Alex Mack cannot be overlooked. He is one of the best centers in the league aand especially adept as a run-blocker. Defensive tackle Alan Branch will be a challenge to move, as will Malcolm Brown,Bro who will have a big advantage over right guard Chris Chester. The Patriots controlled the line of scrimmage in the AFC title game versus the Steelers. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower is a downhill-type player. Edge: Falcons
SPECIAL TEAMS
In the return game, the Patriots are shaky — their 11 combined fumbles on kickoffs and punts are the most by a team in a decade. The kickers are solid and timetested. The Pats’ Stephen Gostkowski did not have a great season (for him), missing five field goals and three extra points. Matt Bryant, at 41, had another strong season (34 of 37 on field goals, 56 of 57 on PATs). The Falcons punted an NFL-low 48 times in the regular season. Edge: Falcons
COACHING
The Falcons believe in Dan Quinn because he keeps it loose and understands the minds of this generation of players. Quinn made his reputation as the Seahawks defensive coordinator, but his Falcons are dominated by offense. Quinn showed faith in several young defensive players, starting them immediately. His offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, is headed to the 49ers as their new head coach. He will take chances with his play calls. The Super Bowl and Belichick go hand-inhand and he is sure to come up with a few wrinkles no one expects. He is 4-2 in Super Bowls (thanks, Eli Manning) and no one is smarter or has his team more prepared. Edge: Patriots
INTANGIBLES
The experience factor is a knockout for the Patriots and treating this as just another game is fine for the Falcons too say, difficult for them to enact. t. The Patriots feasted on a soft schedule and week after week of mediocre opposing quarterbacks. Ryan and company are a huge step up in class. Stage fright is always a concern with a team new on the scene. Edge: Patriots