A Very Trumpian Mideast Peace Plan
CALL it the “whatever” approach to peacemaking. At a White House press conference Wednesday designed to display renewed warmth in the US-Israel relationship, President Trump was asked about his approach to Mideast peace. For two decades, the two-state solution has been the preferred approach to dissolving Arab-Israeli enmity. Would Trump stick to it?
“I’m looking at two states and one state, and I like the one that both parties like. I can live with either one,” Trump said.
At first glance, a glib, shallow answer. But the self-styled artist of deals has long championed noncommitment and unpredictability as a bargaining tactic. Why stake out a firm position when a nonchalant “whatever” would do?
Especially if in doing so, Trump is able to thaw the icy treatment his guest, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, got from President Barack Obama and, earlier, Bill Clinton.
The irony: Now that Bibi finally found a friend in the White House, his 11-year hold on power at home suddenly looks shaky. Under investigation for corruption, Netan- yahu has become increasingly reliant on his right-wing coalition partners, who push him to add new settlements and renounce his commitment to establishing a Palestinian state.
“I’d like you to hold back on settlements a little bit,” Trump said in a friendly manner. But that was a far cry from past warnings by Obama that any brick being laid down in Jerusalem could threaten not only Mideast peace but world peace.
While Bibi was routinely called upon to take political risks for the sake of peace, no similar demand was made to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whose political weakness made officials nervous about pushing him too far. He couldn’t possibly make bold moves like recognizing Israel as a Jewish state or giving up on the demand to flood it with more than 5 million Arab descendants of refugees.
While not shutting the door on the twostate solution, Netanyahu sidestepped it.
“Rather than labels, I want to look at substance,” he said, adding a question about the proposed Palestinian state: “Will it be Costa Rica, or will it be Iran?”
Trump didn’t force Netanyahu to swear allegiance to the “solution.” Instead, he hinted, “We are going to make a deal that might be even a bigger and better deal than people in this room understand.”
Rather than leaving it at that, Netanyahu spelled out the new strategy — a regional approach that involves, he said, “our newfound Arab partners in the pursuit of a broader peace, and peace with the Palestinians.”
Trump insisted that this socalled outside-in strategy — making peace between Israel and existing Arab states before creating a new Arab state — “hasn’t been discussed before.” But in 1991, Bush 41 gathered leaders of Arab states in Madrid, Spain, for a conference that tried just that. It didn’t succeed then. Can it now? Leaders from the Maghreb to Arabia — including most prominently Saudi Arabia and the Gulfies, Egypt, Morocco and Jordan — have tightened cooperation with Israel recently. They’ve realized that Israel threatens them much less than ISIS or Iran.
Hence, as Trump said, “We have some pretty good cooperation from people that in the past would never have even thought about it.” But while those leaders cooperate with Israel on arms, intel and other ways to fight common enemies, they only do so — so far, at least — behind the scenes.
To formalize such cooperation and end the Arab world’s deep-seated animosity toward Israel would take more political strength than these leaders currently have. America may convince these Arab leaders to take such risks, but only if it first shows them it can take the lead on the fight against the Iranian and Islamist dangers they fear.
For the time being, Trump managed to set new peace goals. For a short news cycle, he got a reprieve from the political turmoil around him, while helping out an old friend.
So, yes, peace remains as elusive as it was when the words “two-state solution” were abused so often that they became an empty slogan. Will Trump and Bibi manage to break the ennui?
Well, whatever.