Top HS recruits spreading out
THE freshman-year struggles of Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons and Malik Newman were supposed to end the trend of top recruits staying away from powerhouse programs — and help those powerhouse programs dominate once again the one-and-done talent.
Instead, a year later, little has changed. The likes of Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and Arizona aren’t exactly going hungry, but neither are fivestar recruits looking at Fultz, Simmons and Newman as cautionary tales.
The latest example came on Thursday, when five-star point guard Trae Young stunned many in the recruiting world by picking Oklahoma over Kansas, choosing the Sooners because of the opportunity to be a star in his home state and rewarding Coach Lon Kruger and his staff ’s dogged recruiting efforts.
“I’d rather bet on myself than go somewhere and it be all about someone else,” Young said at his commitment press conference.
In the 2017 class, Young isn’t alone. The top small forward in the nation, according to 247Sports.com’s cumulative rankings, Michael Porter, is also staying home, having signed with Washington. Five-star wing Mitchell Robinson has committed to Western Kentucky, and consensus top 10 recruit Collin Sexton is going to Alabama. Another five-star prospect, center Jeremiah Tilmon, is staying in his home state to play for Illinois.
The choices of Porter and Robinson were somewhat predictable. Western Kentucky hired Shammond Williams, Robinson’s godfather, as an assistant coach, and Washington did the same with Porter’s father, Michael Porter Sr. The others, meanwhile, took the same path as Young, choosing the school that was there from the beginning.
The end game, it seems, is more important than the present. While Simmons failed to reach the NCAA Tournament in his one year at LSU, and Fultz’s Washington team is having an even worse season, just 2-12 in the Pac-12, neither’s pro stock was damaged by passing on the blue bloods. Simmons was the No. 1 pick in last June’s draft, and Fultz remains in the running to be selected first this year, too.
Newman was the one hurt the most. Not only did the Mississippi native struggle in his one season at Mississippi State, but his stock fell so far, he opted to transfer to powerhouse Kansas, sitting out this season, rather than entering the draft or sticking it out at the SEC school.
“It has not had an overall effect yet at all,” 247Sports.com national recruiting analyst Andrew Slater said in a phone in- terview. “Certain players and those they surround themselves with are not primarily motivated by winning.
“They’re often looking at the best place to go for draft positioning [to showcase themselves].”
That’s not to say the powerhouse programs are being left out in the cold. According to 247Sports’s rankings, Kentucky has five top 24 prospects in line for next year, and Duke has two. Both remain in the mix for Harlem big man Mohammed Bamba, and Florida wing Kevin Knox. Arizona has secured Scout’s No. 1 prospect, DeAndre Ayton, and is in the hunt for Bamba and uncommitted point guard Trevon Duval, as is Duke.
Yet, the on-court struggles of Fultz, Simmons and Newman haven’t deterred top prospects from taking the less popular route. In some cases, it seems, it has only encouraged them to do so.