Blow by blow
How the NL East’s two biggest rivals stack up
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Did baseball’s best current rivalry hold a dress rehearsal Thursday at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches?
No, Mets-Nationals can’t hold a finger to Yankees-Red Sox, Dodgers-Giants or CardinalsCubs when it comes to history and regalness. In 2017, though? Mets-Nationals has two critical attributes going for it:
1) It’s close. The Mets and Nats are very evenly matched, whether you’re going by the eye test or by statistical projections.s. Fangraphs has the Nationals fin-nishing 90-72 and the Mets 86-76,6, while Baseball Prospectus calcu-ulates the Mets to go 89-73 and thehe only Nats division88-74. Theon whichNL East these is twotheh respected analytical sites dis-sagree as to who will win.
2) It’s exclusive. One of the twoo moreclubs will likely win to the see division.Donald TrumpYou’rer sharing a banana split with Ar-rnold Schwarzenegger at an Up-pper West Side Haagen Dazs thisis weekend than the Marlins, Braveses or Phillies prevailing this season.n.
With less than a week remain-ning before both clubs break camp, how about a preseason tale of the tape, factoring in this spring’s developments?
Lineup: The Nationals outscored the Mets by a healthy 763671 margin last season, and the Mets sure as heck think they’ll close that gap this season as they attribute much of that low count to a fluky bad performance with runners in scoring position. Travis d’Arnaud has looked much better in Grapefruit League action. You wonder how much the Mets are shooting themselves in the foot by going with veteran Jay Bruce over youngster Michael Conforto in right field.
The Nats could be better, too, though, with Adam Eaton on board, Trea Turner around for a full season and Bryce Harper appearing determined to regain his 2015 NL Most Valuable Player form.
Edge: Nationals Starting rotation: The Mets’ group hasn’t been perfect this past month, what with Matt Harvey working on arm strength, Zack Wheeler working on command and Noah Syndergaard battling bronchitis. Neither has the Nation- als’, though. Stephen Strasburg has a 7.30 ERA through four starts as he adjusts to working solely out of the stretch. Max Scherzer just made his Grapefruit League debut Wednesday after overcoming a stress fracture in his right ring finger. And Tanner Roark committed the mistake of pitching in the WBC, putting him on a haphazard schedule. Throw in the Mets’ depth, with Robert Gsellman recording another solid effort Thursday in the Mets’ 1-0 loss, as an advantage. Edge: Mets
Bullpen: Over this next week, the Nats will announce the identity of their closer. Also over this next week, Major League Baseball will announce the suspension length of Mets closer Jeurys Familia for his domestic-violence offense. Given his workload the past couple of years, Familia actually might benefit from a penalty of 15-30 games. The Nats, meanwhile, have quelled anxieties with all of their late-relief candidates (Joe Blanton, Koda Glover, Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinin) performing effectively. Edge: Nationals
Defense: The Mets’ good news: Curtis Granderson appears comfortable back in center field. The very bad news: d’Arnaud’s throwing arm remains a concern. The Nats will see whether Eaton, like Granderson switching from right field back to the middle, can improve from his last experience there. And catcher Matt Wieters struggled to find a job in part because of his reputation as a bad defender. Edge: Nationals
Prediction: Nationals in 162. It might require all 162 games to determine the champion. Give Washington a slight edge headed into the season. The easiest forecast of all: This rivalry will be even more intense by season’s end.