The Bear Necessities
AS North Korea plunges ahead with its nuclear-weapons program, Vladimir Putin continues subverting Western democracies and Iran piles provocations atop one another, a pressing question in each case is whether economic sanctions work. The answer is: “sometimes.” But you won’t get an honest answer from talking heads these days. We’ve politicized strategic reality at the expense of facts. If you’re on the left, you insist that China can be persuaded to apply magic sanctions to North Korea. If you’re a hardcore Trump supporter, you insist that sanctions on Russia have made no difference. How you feel about our withered sanctions on Iran depends on how you regard President Obama’s controversial nuke deal.
Yet, all three cases are different, illustrating both the power and limits of economic sanctions.
Sanctions rarely succeed by themselves. Applied synergistically with other actions, though, sanc- tions can be a powerful tool. Contrary to counter-factual claims, economic sanctions imposed on Russia after successive invasions of its neighbors have had a profound effect (whenever a talk-show commissar tells me that Russia sanctions haven’t worked, I ask him why Putin’s so desperate to have them lifted).
Sanctions have bitten Russia for two reasons. First, they coincided felicitously with a global collapse in energy prices. Putin’s economic monoculture relies on income from gas and oil exports. The doublewhammy of cheap gas and Western sanctions hit Russia hard, causing Putin to pause his war in Ukraine and now to cut his defense budget.
But the second reason is that even Putin has to answer to his people at some level. And while Russia’s been under sanctions, the poverty rate doubled, inflation soared, pensions declined dramatically in real value and trade collapsed. For months, Russian newspapers insisted that there was no shortage of medicines — which told Russia-watchers there were medicine shortages.
Sanctions alone won’t bring Putin down, but they’ve imposed a painful cost for his bad behavior. As evidence mounts of Russian attempts to subvert our democracy, it would be wanton capitulation to remove the sanctions now.
In Iran, too, the regime of bitter old men in clerical robes suffered severely under sanctions. Trade and banking strictures long prevented Iran from modernizing its military, its airlines, its industries . . . Tehran felt real pain. Iran’s leaders, who’d insisted that they’d never negotiate with the “Great Satan,” crawled to the table for talks on their nuke program.
The problem wasn’t that sanctions didn’t work — they did. The problem was that the Iranians were vastly sharper negotiators than Secretary of State John Kerry or President Obama, who were childishly eager for a showpiece deal. Now, with sanctions fatally weakened, Iran’s rampaging across the Middle East and challenging our Navy to pull the first trigger.
Then there’s North Korea, where sanctions haven’t worked and won’t. China won’t take any action that might bring down the Pyongyang regime, which Beijing views as a vital military ally in a future war with the United States. But the even deeper problem is that, unlike Putin or Iran’s Khamenei, Kim Jong-un cares nothing for his people.
Should millions of North Koreans starve, Kim will only shrug — as long as his security services and military are fed.
So we have clear guidelines for judging the potential utility of sanctions:
Sanctions work best when they’re one element in a comprehensive approach — they’re a tool and not a stand-alone solution.
Sanctions only work against a state whose leaders ultimately must answer to its people.
Sanctions don’t work when, as was the case with Cuba, the sanctioned state has protectors that undercut the sanctions regime.
Sanctions work slowly. Patience is required.
It shouldn’t be necessary to add that sanctions thrive only when their effects are measured by facts, not political grandstanding.
Where are we today? Regarding North Korea, sanctions won’t stop its nuclear-weapons program, but should remain in place as punishment. Iran’s a lost cause, since Obama gave up our leverage and let global businesses cut deals with Tehran. But in Russia sanctions are frustrating Putin’s hostile ambitions, crippling his ability to modernize his military machine. Discontent is deepening, if slowly: The old maxim that Russians unite in their suffering breaks down when Russians see their leaders and favored oligarchs leading lives of unprecedented opulence.
Sanctions don’t work miracles, but they can make a helpful difference when the stars align. And we’d be fools to arbitrarily lift sanctions on anyone who behaves as our enemy.
Why Russia sanctions work but those on Iran, NK don’t