Get a late start
Target these hurlers deep in fantasy drafts
IF YOU still go to Best Buy, Target or Walmart to buy DVDs, chances are you have scoured through the large bins of movies being sold for $3.99.
In those bins you will f ind straight-to-video movies like “American Pie Presents: Band Camp,” or “American Pie Presents: The Naked Mile,” or “The Lion King 1 ¹/₂.” If you dig deep enough, however, you can often find classic movies like “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” “The Silence of the Lambs,” “Road House,” “School Ties” “Howard the Duck” or “No Holds Barred.” (Hey, if you can honestly look at the cover of that 1989 Hulk Hogan classic, without smiling and can resist purchasing, you’re not human). It is no different when searching for fantasy pitchers to round out your rotation. Sometimes, you just have to reach in and dig deep to find what you’re looking for.
In Ivan Nova’s seven years with the Yankees, he went 53-39 with a 4.41 ERA, 1.388 WHIP and 543 strikeouts (6.7 per nine innings). They’re not the worst numbers, but they certainly don’t jump off the page, screaming, “I belong on your fantasy squad.”
There are several reasons why Nova, who landed in Pittsburgh last season, is an attractive lateround selection this year, with the main reason being his price. According to FantasyPros, Nova has an average draft position of 283.7 and an average auction price of $1. At those prices, it pays to make a play for him. Why? Well, yes, most pitchers are more attrac- tive in the NL than they are in the AL, but the simplest answer is this: pitching coach Ray Searage.
The Pirates’ pitching guru has made a name for himself in recent years for his success with reclamation projects like Francisco Liriano, J.A. Happ, A.J. Burnett and Edinson Volquez.
Though it was a s hort sample s i ze, Nova was spectacular after moving from The Bronx to the Steel City.
Last year with Pittsburgh, the 30-year-old righty went 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, a crazy 52:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.62 FIP, which indicates he was slightly unlucky in his 11 starts with the Pirates. He never has been a big strikeout pitcher, but he struck out 19.8 percent of the batters he faced (his highest percentage since 2013).
It is unlikely he will maintain the same walk rate, but Nova signed a three-year deal with Pittsburgh this offseason, so he not only gets to stay in the NL, but he gets to stay with Searage — both of which should work to his advantage on the mound, and yours in the fantasy world.
Here are some other l ateround starting pitcher bargains:
James Paxton’s (167. 3, $5) record (6-7) and ERA (3.79) were nothing to write home about last season, but his velocity was up (from 95 mph in 2014 to 97 last year), he walked a career-low 1.8 per nine innings, struck out a career-high 8.7 per nine and had a 2.80 FIP. This could be a breakout season for the lefty in Seattle.
Coming off his worst season in the majors, Drew Smyly (200.3,$1) finds himself in pitcher-friendly Safeco Park and a solid buy-low option. He limits walks (2.5 per nine innings), has great strikeout potential and a solid strand rate.
Arizona’s Robbie Ray (231.5, $2) may be 14-31 with a 4.65 ERA for his career, including his 8-15 record and 4.90 ERA from last season, but don’t pay attention to those numbers. He struck out 218 (11.3 per nine innings), had a 3.76 FIP and 3.45 xFIP, so his overall numbers don’t tell the entire story. Target him late.
If Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell (248.7, $1) can gain some control (he walked 5.1 per nine innings over 19 starts last season), he could be in for a big year. He throws hard (93.5 mph) and can strike out batters (9.9 per nine innings) with regularity.
Er vin Santana (283.7, $1) may be 34-years-old, but he still managed to get the job done last season on a miserable Twins team. Though his 7-11 record left much to be desired, he went 6-4 with a 2.41 ERA, .213 opponent average and 100 strikeouts over his past 18 starts. He can provide solid depth as a back-end starter.