CITI OF DREAMS
METS OPEN AT HOME TODAY WITH HIGH HOPES
DAVID Wright surveyed the clubhouse in the fading hours of spring training and pronounced, “This is probably the deepest team I have ever been on.” Wright is wise enough to have followed with provisos about the need for health and performance, though even wordless he would serve as the human cautionary tale. He will be in uniform Monday at Citi Field, called to the line as part of the pageantry of Opening Day. And then … Who knows? Wright’s injuries are such that maybe he will play some this year, maybe he won’t. And even being cleared to play means, what exactly? A cascade of ailments to his back, shoulder and neck have ravaged Wright’s body and career, detouring what not long ago was at least a borderline Hall of Fame trajectory. Again, the cautionary tale. These Mets look good before a pitch has been thrown — deep, talented and battle-tested as a group. Then Noah Syndergaard is going to throw the first pitch shortly after 1 p.m. Monday, and we go back to that question again: Who knows?
A career, a season, they go where they are going to go.
The Mets made the playoffs last year because of stuff we never could have seen coming — Jose Reyes at third base, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo saving the rotation, Addison Reed as arguably the most effective reliever in the NL. What is on the way this year? “As far as what can be with this team, I can make an argument for this team having one of the highest ceilings in baseball,” Wright said.
So what could make that ceiling collapse?
Fragility, especially in the rotation. Age, particularly in the everyday lineup. Defensive liabilities, notably behind the plate and in center field.
The season opens with Lugo and Steven Matz on the DL. Glass half full: Because the Mets are seven deep in quality starters, they still will have five quality options. Glass half empty: They are one injury away from starting Rafael Montero.
It is possible the Mets will go another season without ever getting a single rotation turn of Syndergaard, Matz, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. But you know what? It didn’t happen the past two seasons, and the Mets still reached the playoffs both years.
Syndergaard and deGrom begin on the short list of starters good enough to win a Cy Young, and perhaps Harvey could come back to that as well. If the Mets have those three going at peak efficiency, then they probably can survive subpar results in the Nos. 4-5 slots. And, by the way, Gsellman is not subpar. The Mets have a chance to have four high-end starters, which would allow them to save plenty of bullpen for Wheeler and be patient in nursing back Lugo and Matz.
None of the Mets’ five starters will be older than 28. None of the Mets’ starting position players will be younger than Jay Bruce, who fittingly turns 30 on Opening Day. The cast of 30somethings is one red flag after another — the backs of Lucas Duda and Neil Walker, the legs of Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes, who entered a walk year in each of the last two seasons, will be the only starting position player Monday not doing so in 2017. That — pick if your glass is full or empty — will serve as rousing inspiration or dousing pressure to stay on the field and excel.
The presence of Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores and — when he returns from the DL — Juan Lagares provides the Mets a 20-something level of quality depth. The irony is that besides Wright, whose presence on the roster was always iffy, the other two position players who will open on the DL are Lagares, age 28, and Brandon Nimmo, age 24.
They are eventually centerfield depth for Curtis Granderson, who, at 36, is the oldest 2017 Met (where have you gone, Bartolo Colon?). Granderson has not been a regular center fielder since 2012, moved out of the position the following year by the Yankees because they saw decline in his defense. Now, the Mets are going to ask him to man the position, with wonder if his body and glove can hold up.
Those questions are even bigger about the oft-injured, defensively suspect Travis d’Arnaud. Rene Rivera is starting Opening Day because of the comfort level he brings to Syndergaard, particularly in neutralizing a running game. On sodium pentothal, each Mets pitcher probably would state a preference for Rivera, as well.
General manager Sandy Alderson tried to obtain Jonathan Lucroy at the trade deadline last year, and had he been successful the Mets would have another player in his walk year, but also the kind of two-way catcher who would elevate expectations for the 2017 club to even a higher plateau.
But as they try to make the playoffs for a third straight season for the first time ever and win their first title since 1986, the Mets — even without Lucroy — have that high ceiling. Now, the unpredictability of the season takes over. Syndergaard will lift his arm and after that …
Who knows?