Miguel for sale
Unload Sano while his value is high
SOMETIMES things aren’t as they seem.
For instance, a fire fly is not a fly, it’s a beetle. A peanut is not a nut, it’s a legume. Covfefe isn’t a word, but a way of life ... or an amazing land lined with streets made of gold and houses filled with perfectly crisp bacon ... or something thought up while sitting on the toilet at 1 a.m. OK, maybe it is what it seems.
In fantasy baseball, you need to know what is real and what is fake, when it is time to invest in a player, and when it is time to sell them at peak value.
Before Friday night, Miguel Sano had struck out 73 times this season (37.1 percent of his at-bats) and was on pace to whiff 252 times (yes, that would be a record). There are five players in the history of the game who have struck out 200 times or more in a season — Mark Reynolds (three times), Chris Carter (twice), Chris Davis (twice), Adam Dunn and Drew Stubbs. None of those players had a batting average higher than .262.
Sano hits the ball hard and is walking in a career-high 16.2 percent of his at-bats, but he has an incredibly unsustainable .456 BABIP (highest in the league), almost 80 points higher than his career norm. His .297 average is going to fall, period. If you were expecting him to remain a borderline .300 hitter knowing he is a career .258 hitter, chances are you also believe you’re on a sitcom and people are watching you all day.
After hitting .269 with 18 homers and 52 RBIs in just 80 games in 2015, big things were expected. He disappointed in 2016, when he hit .236 with 25 homers and 66 RBIs in 116 games. Sano appears to be having his moment (13 homers, 40 RBIs, .411 OBP, 1.017 OPS), but the numbers indicate it won’t remain this good.
It has been just 47 games, so selling Sano is not missing out on a breakout season or giving up on a young player, it is taking something when it is worth the most and turning it into something that is more valuable in the long run. And fantasy is about the endgame, not the first 47 games.
Here is a look at some players to consider buying and selling:
Buy: Jeff Samardzija might be 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA, but he is striking out a career-high 10.5 per nine innings and has a 3.13 FIP and 2.81 xFIP. Better days are ahead for the 32-year-old.
Sell: Despite Corey Dickerson’s high hard-hit percentage (35.3), he is hitting a career-high number of ground balls and his BABIP (.394) is about 60 points higher than his career average. Regression is in his future.
Buy: Maikel Franco can’t be this bad, can he? He is hitting .216, but his plate discipline numbers are in line with his career numbers, his hard-hit percentage is at a career high, he gets RBI opportunities and his .222 BABIP indicates he is running into bad luck. Ignore the chatter of him being sent to Triple-A and buy while he is at bargain-bin prices.
Sell: Dylan Bundy is 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA, but there are red flags. The 24-year-old’s FIP (4.04) and xFIP (4.84) indicate his luck will run out, but even more concerning are his injury history (2013 Tommy John surgery) and the fact he never has pitched more than 109 ²/₃ innings in a season (he already has thrown 71 ²/₃). Think Carlos Martinez in 2015 — 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA in the first half, 4-4 with a 3.73 ERA in the second. Sell: Antonio Senzatel a has been sensational through his first 11 starts (7-2, 3.49 ERA), but he is a rookie pitching in Coors Field without dominating stuff (5.91 strikeouts per nine), with a 4.16 FIP and a .258 BABIP. His long-term outlook doesn’t look as lucky.