Raysing Arizona
Hold onto D’backs hurler even after regression
THERE is a lot to like about Robbie Ray — including the fact his name sounds l i ke s o me hipster DJ who serves maple bacon donuts in a boutique bakery in Brooklyn, or the fact he looks like a guy who either should be running a BBQ joint in Texas or wandering the country with his blue ox named Babe.
The Diamondbacks’ lefty is striking out a careerhigh 11 . 3 per nine innings and is ranked sixth in the league with 95 whiffs. He also is ranked fourth in opponent average (.188), 13th in WHIP (1.07) and ninth in ERA (2.85). He has allowed just one earned run over his past four starts (three of which were on the road), while going 4-0 with a 0.30 ERA, .110 opponent average, .160 on-base percentage, .160 slugging percentage and a 36:5 strikeoutto-walk ratio.
Though this stretch is impressive, let’s make sure we keep things in perspective. Two of those games were against the Padres (the worst hitting team in the league), one was against the Pirates’ 24th-ranked offense and the other was against the Brewers, a mid-ranked offensive club.
Despite the fa ct Ray has walked just five batters in his past four starts, he still has command problems, issuing 3.69 walks per nine innings (10th most walks in the league). He has sported an insanely unsus- tainable .159 BABIP during this stretch, something that eventually will correct itself (along with his .251 BABIP for the season). He has an 80.8 percent strand rate and a hard-hit percentage of 42.9, both of which will make it hard to keep things at his current pace. Another concern is the fact he pitches at Chase Field. Though he is striking out 11 . 3 per nine in his six home starts, he still is 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. In 32 career starts in Arizona, he is 8-14 with a 5.26 ERA. By comparison, he is 4-1 with a 0.64 ERA in six road starts this year, and 11-18 with a 3.31 ERA in 39 appearances (37 starts) away from home.
Ray’s FIP (3.24) and xFIP (3.44) do indicate there will be regression, but Roto Rage doesn’t believe you should run and sell to the highest bidder or believe he cannot be trusted for the long haul. All this means is he is not going to be as good as he has been over his past four starts.
This is a 25-year-old pitcher with tons of upside who could be on his way to becoming a fantasy building block for years to come. That is something you want to hold onto.
Where’s our ’Hiro?
Over his past f ive st arts, Masahiro Tanaka is 0-5 with a 10.72 ERA and .343 opponent average. He has allowed 11 homers and a 1.146 OPS. Is he this bad? No, this is still a pitcher who went 5-0 with a 3. 10 E RA in six starts before this horrif ic stretch. He has run into s o me bad luck, supported by his 5.62 FIP and 4.20 xFIP, and the fact he has the second-highest BABIP and one of the lowest strand rates over the last month. Much like Jose Quintana (2-7, 5.30 ERA), Tanaka is an ideal buy-low candidate.
Cut to the Chase ...
Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson is 5-1 with a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts, and has thrown 21 ²/₃ scoreless innings over his past three starts. He is throwing all of his pitches about 2 mph harder than a year ago and has career-high strand rate (77.8 percent) and strikeout rate (21.8 percent). His 3.31 FIP and 4.33 xFIP indicate he may not stay as good as he has been, but he certainly is worth keeping around.