Streaming, cord-cutting seen sapping pay-TV’s Q2
Cable TV is staring down the barrel of the gun, as the second quarter is expected to feature dismal subscriber trends for the pay-TV industry.
The second quarter is a historically weak one for media companies, and as streaming competition continues to intensify and the cord-cutting trend persists, analysts have low expectations for the quarter.
Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker forecasts total pay-TV subscriber declines of 1.28 million in the second quarter.
“It’s not a great environment, but it feels like expectations are low enough,” Ryvicker wrote in a note to clients.
Evercore analyst Vijay Jayant agreed that second-quarter subscriber losses are expected to be higher than the roughly 800,000 subscribers lost in the first quarter and the 760,000 lost during the second quarter a year ago. Jayant expects the industry to lose about 1.09 million subscribers.
“We believe that the second quarter is the first quarter in which pay TV net losses exceeded the 1 million mark,” Jayant wrote in a note to investors.
“While Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year, we expect results to show continued pressure on the segment due to cord-cutting and the growth in cord-nevers.”
The second quarter is seasonally weak due to the content slate and changes in watching behavior caused by the change in the weather.
But new competition has also done its share of damage. The industry saw the launch of two new live TV streaming services during the quarter: Google’s YouTube TV and Hulu Live TV from the streaming service owed by Disney, Twenty-First Century Fox, Comcast and Time Warner.
“Before the second quarter valuation collapse, we believe cord-cutting exposure was already largely priced into shares, as the group was trading at a more substantial 3.5 times discount to the market,” Jayant wrote.