CASH CAN’T OVERPAY FOR A BIG ARM
JULY HAS turned into an annual exercise of “Stuck in the middle with the Yankees.”
Stuck in the middle last year, the Yankees acted both aggressively and counter intuitive ly — and they’re reaping the dividends now by being stuck in a different, better middle. Let’s call it the “Upper middle.” This time? The Yankees should behave neither aggressively nor counter intuitive ly, their organizational culture having been transformed by last year’s success. They didn’t build for this season with an all-in mentality, and they shouldn’t shift gears for Sonny Gray or anyone else who becomes available by the July 31 non-waivers trade deadline.
In a motto: Protect the jewels. Clint Frazier, naturally. Gleyber Torres. Chance Adams. Justus Sheffield. Maybe even Miguel Andujar and his career major league OPS of 1.800. Those guys should stay. Because these Yankees do not carry a “Now or never” vibe. To the contrary, they feel like Phase 1 of something exciting and sustainable.
When they take the Yankee Stadium field Tuesday night against the Reds, their first home game since the All-Star Game, the Yankees will own a 51-46 record and own the top spot in the jammed battle for the American League wildcard entries. And because the Red Sox have come out of the All-Star break with a 5-7 mark as the Yankees went 6-5 through their three-city road trip, the Yankees trail by just two games overall — and are tied in the loss column — after the Red Sox lost 4-0 Monday night in Seattle.
Through 97 games last year, the Yankees stood at 49-48, just two games worse. Nevertheless, when they lost game 97, 2-1 to the Giants in 12 innings, they committed to trading Aroldis Chapman; the closer went to the Cubs two days later. Following another week of water-treading, they dealt Andrew Miller to the Indians, Carlos Beltran to the Rangers and Ivan Nova to the Pirates.
Selling isn’t and shouldn’t be an option now. However, the Yankees sit a bad week away from flirting with .500 and falling behind several teams in the wild-card competition. They haven’t made themselves a slam-dunk, in-it-to-win-it operation.
My Post colleague Joel Sherman pointed out a critical difference between this year’s Yankees and their immediate predecessors: run differential. Through 97 games, the 2016 Yankees scored 398 runs and allowed 426; they had overachieved thanks to a stellar bullpen. Through 97 games, the 2017 Yankees have scored 517 runs and permitted 413; they have underachieved due to a leaky bullpen.
Brian Cashman tried to plug that leak last week when he picked up David Robertson and Tommy Kahn le, plus Todd Frazier, from the White Sox. The Yankees’ general manager accomplished that transaction while protecting the jewels, with outfielder Blake Rutherford — just a year from being drafted and playing in the Class-A South Atlantic League — the most acclaimed prospect to depart.
So now, armed with a strengthened bullpen and that stellar run differential … I still contend they shouldn’t get ahead of themselves. They got to where they are, building a 38-23 cushion out of the gate that allowed them to withstand the 13-24 cratering that has followed, on the backs of supreme performances by a group of guys ranging from the roster’s two oldest players (Matt Holliday and CC Saba th ia) to young veterans( Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks, both currently on the disabled list) to rookies (Aaron Judge and Jordan Montgomery). Even if the bullpen is fixed — and Chapman, for one, hardly looks fixed — is there sufficient fuel here to build enough leads for those relievers to get after it?
If Oakland’s price for the injuryprone Gray, who can’t become a free agent until after 2019, drops below that elite level of young talent, then sure, the Yankees should get him. Short of that, though, the Yankees should pass and see whether their second tier of prospects can obtain a starting rotation upgrade (Lance Lynn? Marco Estrada?).
The Yankees have accomplished what would have been unfathomable five years ago: They have sold themselves and (much of ) their fan base on the long-term plan. This doesn’t feel like the time to bring that plan across the finish line.
Next year, if all goes well, they’ll have graduated beyond any middles and be ready to bring it home. How they act in the next week could determine that fate. They shouldn’t rush this potential masterpiece.
Why the Yankees have to be cautious at the deadline