WHY YANKS ARE GOING IN ON SONNY

Getting Gray would put Yanks on Jays’ 2015 path to playoffs

THE BLUE Jays were just 50-51 when they made the f irst of two huge deadline deals in 2015, obtaining Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies three days before landing David Price from the Tigers.

Toronto was looking at underlying numbers, however, that suggested it could (and probably would) play much better. The Blue Jays’ run differential was plus-94 and the baseball Pythagorean theorem indicated Toronto was more a 60-41 team than 50-51.

So the Blue Jays obtained Tulowitzki and Price, and went from under .500, three games out of the wild card and eight behind the first-place Yankees in the AL East to 93-69, winning the division by six games and finishing with a plus-221 run differential.

The Yankees are sitting in a similar situation. It is one big reason why they tried so hard to land their Price (Jose Quintana), did add Todd Frazier, Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson, and probably are not through, with Sonny Gray still a possibility.

The Yankees ended the weekend at 51-46, ranked as the top wild card (but just barely) and 2 ¹/₂ games behind the first-place Red Sox. But at plus104 runs, the Pythagorean theorem indicated they should be 58-39, which would have them in first place with the second best record in the AL. But the Yanks have the AL’s worst record in one-run games at 9-19, which has skewed their overall record. Their hope is that bolstering their bullpen reverses those results the rest of the way and they take off like the 2015 Blue Jays.

Now, the 2017 Yankees and ’15 Blue Jays are not apples for apples. Toronto had not made the playoffs in 22 years — a period in which the Yanks won five titles — and recognized what it could do for attracting fans to get in. But those Blue Jays also saw a vulner- able first-place team in the Yankees and knew they had 13 games with New York left to reverse the standings.

The 2017 Red Sox have not played as well on the field as they look on paper and the Yanks — already 6-3 against Boston —have 10 posttrade-deadline games left against the Red Sox.

In 2015, Brian Cashman mainly stayed pat at the deadline feeling his organizational depth was not in a place to make big deals. This year, by already trading the well-regarded Blake Rutherford, the Yankees GM has shown he believes his infrastructure is in a different place. Which is why the Yankees are maintaining interest in available start-ers, namely Gray. The Yankees liked Quintana more than Gray for a variety of reasons, none bigger than better durability. They continue to worry about Gray’s ability to stay healthy for a sustained period. The Yankees and Brewers are viewed as the strongest contenders for Gray, but the Braves have also joined the fray, hoping to perhaps make a long-shot wild-card run this year and be contenders with Gray in 2018-19. The Astros also are staying in touch with the A’s about Gray, who despite his fragility might be the best starting option left in the trade market. Yu Darvish, a free agent after this season, is not currently available, said an executive for a team interested in him because the Rangers believe they can make a wild-card run. That situation is fluid, however, and can flip if Texas begins to lose steadily over the next few days.

Justin V er lander would be of more interest to clubs if the Tigers showed a willingness to pay down some of the $28 million the righty is owed both in 2018 and ’19. But the Tigers have not been inclined to do that or lower its prospect ask, moving one executive hunting a starter to say, “I don’t even think about Justin Verlander because I don’t see him available in a legitimate way.”

Gray has endured injuries each of the last two seasons, but he is on a five-start run in which he is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a .470 OPS against.

The Yankees thought they had assembled a package as good as the one the Cubs used to get Quintana. They would offer less for Gray, but do have a deep system. Gray is attractive — if healthy — because he would provide the strong starting innings the 2017 Yankees need while adding a desperately needed sure rotation piece moving forward (he cannot be a free agent until after the 2019 season). Oakland is telling clubs that if it does not get an offer it finds legitimate — likely two strong prospects and two lower-level lottery-ticket types with significant upside — they will hold onto Gray and try to move him in an offseason when the starting pitching free-agent market might not be appealing. Of course, there is a risk that Gray could break down again and lose value.

The Yanks also have been linked to A’s first baseman Yonder Alonso, but that does not appear a front-burner item for them. Instead, they are more fixated on a starter with the idea it could be a final piece to have them launch, much like the 2015 Blue Jays did down the stretch.

Why the Yankees feel they should keep pushing at the deadline