MESSAGE: RECEIVE
Build a deep bank of WRs in fantasy drafts
In the fifth of a six-part fantasy football draft preview series, The Post breaks down wide receivers. Next week: which players are rising and falling on draft boards.
WI DE RECEIVER has become t he most impactful position in fantasy football. A higher percentage of draftable WRs routinely score higher than those at running back, but not so many that it undermines the value across as board, as it does with quarterbacks.
Points-per-reception leagues mitigate the notorious variance in week-to-week scoring by providing a stable floor — it is easier to forecast volume than production. Years back, the Flex position became nearly universal, and those positions are easier f illed with WRs than RBs because the pool of reliably productive WRs is deeper. Recently, leagues using a third starting WR have been more popular.
These baby steps have amplified the value of WRs. So you need to get plenty in your draft. But because the top RBs are harder to get, and because the WRs in the middle rounds are safer than their RB counterparts, it is OK to lean toward RBs in the first two or three rounds.
By doing so, though, you likely will miss out on some top targets — Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Michael Thomas and, after Julian Edelman’s season-ending injury, we can add Brandin Cooks to this list. By the time you get to the third round, your options likely will be among DeAndre Hopkins, Terrelle Pryor, Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery and others, maybe even Doug Baldwin. Of these, we prefer Baldwin. We love Hopkins as a player, and expect this season to be better than the last, but he still could have QB issues. Nevertheless, we take him next among these. Pryor is on a new team with a new offensive coordinator, but we love his talent and have faith his QB can get him the ball. Jeffery, we’re not as confident, but we still take him over Allen. His best campaign, in his rookie year in 2013, was fine. He declined in his second year, was on a torrid pace before getting injured halfway through the 2015 season, and he has played less than one full game since. We don’t have an extensive track record to show his capabilities, plus his recent injury woes and the fear he might not return with the same burst after his ACL injury in Week 1 last season.
The track-record worry extends to Tyreek Hill, who normally goes in the early fourth round in 12-team PPR leagues. But we do like fourth-round options Michael Crabtree and Golden Tate. Sammy Watkins previously was in this range, but is slipping after his trade to the Rams. Even in the sixth or seventh, we still aren’t touching him.
Around rounds 4- 6 is where you should snag Martavis Bryant in standard leagues, and watch as someone else foolishly grabs him in PPR formats. Instead, we prefer Jamison Crowder, Willie Snead and Pierre Garcon. A round or two later, that is when DeVante Parker gets on the radar, providing a big body and deep threat, which new QB Jay Cutler likes. This is why we don’t mess with Jarvis Landry earlier.
Because the injury worries of Colts QB Andrew Luck, we bypass T.Y. Hil- ton in the second. But when we skip Donte Moncrief in rounds 7-8, it is as much because of his lack of efficiency (caught just 53.6 percent of targets last season) and an expected touch down n regression (had catch-to-TD rate off 8-1 last year, but 22-1 previous two seasons).
One of our favorite picks this season has been Tyrell Williams. A few weeks ago we could get him wellll into the double-digit rounds. Now hhe lands around the ninth, and is climbing, yet he still is a bargain in our book.
In the later rounds, we’re not afraid of Mike Wallace, particularly in standard leagues. Same for Ted Ginn Jr., and even moreso in best-ball formats. Bad teams often trail, meaning they have to throw, so even with bad QBs, we would opt for late volume with Kenny Britt and Rob-obby Anderson. You could include Zay y Jones in this group as well.
Late fliers include big-play threats like J.J. Nelson. If Curtis Samuel gets enough practice time in before the season, he makes an interesting late pick in deep leagues. Nelson Agholor is worth a gamble, and Cole Beasley, though lacking the upside you normally look for late, has a stable floor for PPR purposes.
There are going to be options in the middle-to-late rounds that give you enough cushion to grab valuable RBs in the first few rounds then flock to those WRs.