3-HEADED MONSTER
THE Yankees do not just have an Aaron Judge issue. They have an outfield issue. And not just now but for next season as well.
In the first half Judge excelled, but so too did Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks, and the Yankees’ outfield OPS of .897 was the majors’ best.
But since the All-Star Game, that number has sagged to .686 — 28th in the majors. It has led to at least the temporary benching of Judge and another chance for Jacoby Ellsbury, who had gone all witness-protection program for a while. Joe Girardi is trying to deduce what his best outfield rotation is down the stretch with a playoff spot at stake.
However, this is not just a 2017 conundrum. Judge’s slump is akin to his cameo last year of overmatched at-bats. Thus, un- less he does another positive U-turn, are the Yankees not back in a similar spot in March? Essentially, who is Aaron Judge?
And who is the real Hicks, the one who was having an All-Star-ish run before his late June oblique injury or the slumping player of August?
Beyond the two Aarons are the two veterans. Can the Yankees carry both Ellsbury, about to turn 34, and Gardner, 34, at that age again next year?
Clint Frazier’s pre-injury audition demonstrated his bat speed/ athleticism, but also how much growth he still needs to be a major league regular. Dustin Fowler was traded to the A’s in the Sonny Gray deal, as was Jorge Mateo, who many Yankees officials thought would ultimately end up in center field.
The strong late-season work by Jake Cave and Billy McKinney at Triple-A has the Yankees planning to put them on the 40-man roster this offseason or trade them before they are lost for nothing in the Rule 5 draft, according to team officials. It is hard to see how either lefty bat gets on a 25-man roster if it still contains both Ellsbury and Gardner.
Put it all together and the Yankees have both lots of options and mystery about their 2018 outfield, not dissimilar to how they began this year. Remember that Hicks and Judge were battling for the right-field job until the last week of spring training. Both performed well in March, Judge got the job, but Hicks ultimately became a regular with strong work.
If the Yankees get close to the first-half versions of Hicks and Judge over a full campaign, then they are looking to plug one spot. But can the Yanks know which side of the Jekyll and Hyde season is reality?
Since winning the Home Run Derby, Judge has appeared lost. His .179 average in the second half was second-worst in the majors (minimum 175 plate appearances), and he had struck out in 45 percent of his at-bats. Judge was not just a home-run monster in the first half, but had patient, professional at-bats. Those have been mostly absent for six weeks.
Hicks returned from the DL on Aug. 10, and his .167 average is the third-worst this month (minimum 75 plate appearances). Hicks also missed time with injury last season. Is that coincidence or a predictor of something?
Gardner, as he often has in the past, has seen his results dwindle amid the grind of the season. He had just a .626 OPS in August. Ellsbury had an .825 August OPS, which combined with good at-bats and meaningful hits is why he is playing more regularly.
That could work to the Yankees’ advan- tage. The Yanks would love to trade this winter as much of the three years at $68.5 million Ellsbury is owed after this season to improve their chances of getting under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold for 2018 and finally detach from having both Ellsbury and Gardner on the roster. So any sustained run by Ellsbury that hints he is still a strong player on both sides of the ball can only help.
But it almost certainly would be easier to trade Gardner because he has just $13 million left after this year, has proven to be a more durable, better player than Ellsbury and also has leadership skills. For all of those reasons, though, the Yankees would love to keep him.
In the present, the Yankees need a revitalization from Gardner, Hicks and Judge — first-half assets who have become part of the problem in the second half.