Elliott mess: Be careful making early Zeke pick
THE TENSION is mounting. The anxiety is overwhelming. And the anticipation continues to build. Will Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott be suspended for the start of the 2017 season? Some say he will get the full six games. Many believe it will be reduced to four. Some say two. Then there’s the NFLPA request for the courts to block any suspension, regardless of the arbitrator’s ruling — a battle which could last the entire season, so Zeke plays Week 1. Everyone seems to be on the edge of their seat. Regardless of which you believe or what the eventual outcome is, fantasy football owners still are drafting the troubled running back inside the top 30 overall, and everyone is wondering if this is the right thing to do. If his suspension is overturned or he gets a stay, he is a bargain in the late second round. If it is upheld, you just invested heavily in a guy who will play less than half of the fantasy regular season. A reduced sentence certainly would help, but it still is a high price to pay for someone incapable of contributing for the full year.
Given the uncertainty of the situation, the safe play is to avoid Elliott entirely. Though there may be few running backs who can match his talent, he is not irreplaceable in the fantasy realm. A look at recent average draft position numbers shows fantasy owners content with taking veterans such as Isaiah Crowell and Carlos Hyde or investing in rookies like Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt.
Both veterans are reliable, as Crowell is working behind a top-five offensive line and Hyde is the featured back in a Kyle Shanahan offense. The rookies, who obviously come with a certain amount of risk themselves, all seem to have favorable opportunities. There is nothing wrong with building your team around the potential of any of these players.
But what if you want to roll the dice? Can you take that chance and still draft a team strong enough to keep you afloat until he returns? Yes, you can. It isn’t easy, but if you organize your draft properly, you can find a way to minimize your risk.
If you take this plunge, you have to build up your running back depth. Independent of Zeke, you need at least two starting backs and a sufficient number of backups. You need to cover for both potential injuries and bye weeks. A run- ning back with your first pick probably is your best way to start, but if not, you must make sure at least three of your next five picks after him are backs as well. Invest heavily in the depth now and you will be able to trade some of it once he returns. Without that investment though, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
Some will say the safe play is the smart play. Others will tell you that, in order to win a championship, you need to take risks. Success is not guaranteed either way, but absorbing risk without preparation is certain failure.