EXPECT ‘O’ IN OHIO
OVERREACTIONS are easy. As a fan, or media member, they’re practically mandatory following the first week of the season:
Notre Dame is back. Texas is still terrible. The Jets should draft Josh Rosen instead of Sam Darnold. Every season, a new batch is born, undaunted by the annual mockery made of such declarations. Last year, Houston was headed to the playoffs, and ready to create chaos after upsetting Oklahoma. Two months later, the Cougars had two losses, and were unranked.
Two years ago, defending national champion Ohio State — the first unanimous preseason No. 1 — was going to become one of the greatest teams of all time, using three decorated quarterbacks (Cardale Jones, J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller) in a dominant season-opening win at Virginia Tech. Then, the Buckeyes failed even to make their conference championship game.
Three years ago, Kenny Hill took Texas A&M’s superstar torch from Johnny Manziel, and announced his Heisman Trophy candidacy during his debut, throwing for 511 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-28 win at South Carolina. By November, Hill had lost his starting job. By January, he had decided to transfer.
Soon enough, we’ll find out what was an illusion, but it is clear Ohio State and Oklahoma will compete for their respective conference titles, and in all likelihood, a playoff berth. Having quarterbacks who are former Heisman finalists ensures their floors are higher than most teams’ ceilings.
This year, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield almost certainly will perform better than in his two-interception outing in last season’s 45-24 loss to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes’ J.T. Bar- rett is one of the few quarterbacks capable of matching the Sooners senior’s production.
The game in Columbus should be a shootout for large stretches, but the BUCKEYES (-7½) are better equipped to get big stops in the second half, and hold a significant edge with coach Urban Meyer preparing against Oklahoma’s 34-year-old first-year head coach Lincoln Riley.
SOUTH ALABAMA (+28) over Oklahoma State: As advised, I hope you snagged Mason Rudolph last week at 25-1 to win the Heisman. The bandwagon is now officially full. Roughly 90 percent of all bets for this game have been placed on the Cowboys. Ask Conor McGregor how that works out.
MICHIGAN (-34) over Cincinnati: It wasn’t unreasonable to think Jim Harbaugh’s many new starters meant a step back, but after a convincing win over Florida, there is no reason to doubt the Wolverines as one of the nation’s best again. This week, they face an opponent which was outgained last week by FCS foe Austin Peay.
Florida Atlantic (+31½) over WIS- CONSIN: Lane Kiffin will pull enough tricks out from under his visor to keep the back door open.
Louisville (-10) over NORTH CAROLINA: This isn’t the Dean Dome. Home field doesn’t matter much for these Tar Heels, who lost in Chapel Hill last week after allowing 363 yards and four touchdowns through the air against California’s one-dimensional offense. Against Lamar Jackson, North Carolina can’t even count on such predictability.
Fresno State (+44) over ALABAMA: The Crimson Tide are an annual lock in Week 1 against brand-name opponents. Against second-class programs, the fade is almost always the play. Last year, Alabama followed a 46-point win over USC with a 38-10 victory against Western Kentucky. The year prior, Alabama covered with a win over Wisconsin, then only handed Middle Tennessee State a 37-10 loss.
Eastern Michigan (+5) over RUTGERS: What would be more Rutgers than following up a respectable showing against No. 7 Washington with a face-plant as a favorite?
PENN STATE (-21) over Pittsburgh: The Nittany Lions’ 52-0 win over Akron has bumped this line higher than it should be, but Penn State is up to the task, having lost last year’s matchup. Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley will both increase their Heisman candidacies against a defense that allowed more than 400 yards of offense to Youngstown State.
Nebraska (+13) over OREGON: Is Marcus Mariota starting for Oregon? Is Tom Osborne at quarterback for the Cornhuskers?
Hawaii (+23½) over UCLA: Applaud the Bruins’ incredible comeback last week. Prepare for the letdown.
CLEMSON (-4½) over Auburn: If Kelly Bryant’s debut was a season preview, perhaps the Tigers could meet Alabama in a third straight national title game.
South Carolina (+3) over MISSOURI: I don’t know anyone who doesn’t like having these early in-conference games. I also don’t know anyone who remembers that Missouri is in the SEC.
NOTRE DAME (-4) over Georgia: Keep it simple sometimes. South Bend is not the place for a true freshman quarterback — Georgia’s Jake Fromm — to make his first career start, filling in for injured Jacob Eason.
USC (-5½) over Stanford: The Trojans have been owned by the Cardinal for nearly a decade, but last year’s 27-10 loss is irrelevant. Christian McCaffrey was in the backfield, and Darnold was on the bench. This week, the USC quarterback will be at his best after being overshadowed by Rosen in Week 1.
Boise State (+10½) over WASHINGTON STATE: It will take more than a shutout against FCS foe Montana State for me to believe Mike Leach now values defense after ignoring it over his previous 15 years as a head coach.
BEST BETS: Fresno State, Eastern Michigan, Clemson THIS SEASON: 7-8; BEST BETS: 3-0 2014-16 RECORD: 381-370-7