NOT OK WITH OKLA. ST.
THE BEST bets are at the bottom. Give me a few minutes. I’ll meet you down there.
Spoiler alert: Oklahoma State still isn’t one.
For the past two weeks, I have picked against the team (against the spread) that I predicted prior to the season would make it to the College Football Playoff, going against the quarterback I touted as the best value to win the Heisman Trophy — and Mason Rudolph’s 25-1 odds have since dropped to 9-1 after three games.
I was still confident in the Cowboys. I was just turned off by everyone else’s confidence.
After Oklahoma State opened the season with a 59-24 win over Tulsa, the Cowboys received nearly 90 percent of bets in their Week 2 win over South Alabama. Last week, Oklahoma State again received more than 80 percent of the action, against Pittsburgh, invoking the Profit’s dogma, which strictly forbids siding with such popular favorites. They won the two games by a total of 75 points.
After watching last year’s largely ignored 10-win team, and seeing the key parties — Rudolph, wide receivers James Washington, Jalen McCleskey, and Marcell Ateman, and running back Justice Hill — of perhaps the most explosive offense in the country return, I latched onto them as my sleeper selection.
Now, it’s just not as fun anymore. It’s like watching your favorite band go from CBGB to Madison Square Garden.
At No. 16 TCU this week, the public is again all over Oklahoma State, bingeing on the Cowboys like they have discovered “Breaking Bad” just before the fifth season began.
The Cowboys will win again, but the Horned Frogs are the smart play. TCU, averaging 49 points per game, is one of the few teams that can keep pace in a shootout against Oklahoma State’s unproven defense, while the Horned Frogs’ strong pass rush will present the first real challenge of the season for the country’s second-highest scoring offense.
Take Tcu (+131/2), and take advantage of the inflated line, propped up by Oklahoma State’s newfound popularity. After a close Cowboys win, it’ll be nice to spend some quality time with them when the crowd thins.
Temple (+19½) over SOUTH FLORIDA: Earlier this month, the Bulls were tied at home in the fourth quarter against Stony Brook. After one good showing — against Illinois — don’t bank on South Florida running the table just yet, even against its incredibly weak schedule.
Utah (-31/2) over ARIZONA: Kyle Whittingham lost his first four matchups against Rich Rodriguez, before finally ending the slide last year. The Utes’ strong defensive front limited the Wildcats’ ground game last year to 3.4 yards per carry — Arizona averaged 5.7 yards the rest of the season — and will follow the formula to another win.
UNLV (+40) over Ohio State: If the Buckeyes could just flip a switch, they would have done so by now.
FLORIDA STATE (-13) over North Carolina State: The timing couldn’t have been better for the Seminoles to have two weeks off, allowing true freshman quarterback James Blackman plenty of practice before his first start. It has been easy to forget about Florida State since its loss to Alabama, but the roster remains as impressive as almost any in the country.
Alabama (-18½) over VANDERBILT: Relax. Rarely is Alabama ever that impressive against second- and third-tier programs. The SEC season is starting. It is time for the Crimson Tide to turn it up to 11.
CALIFORNIA (+17) over USC: Sam Darnold is special, but the young gunslinger’s six interceptions are tied for the second-most in the country. The Golden Bears finally have a defense that can take advantage of such mistakes, and have recorded five interceptions through three games.
Boston College (+34) over CLEMSON: The Tigers will cruise, but a letdown from the Louisville win, and a look-ahead to a road game against No. 13 Virginia Tech gives Boston College a chance to keep it within five touchdowns.
Michigan (-10) over PURDUE: Though the Boilermakers’ offense is unrecognizably exciting under new coach Jeff Brohm, Michigan will make Purdue look like itself again with a dominant defensive performance.
BAYLOR (+27) over Oklahoma: The Sooners are on nearly 90 percent of tickets. Believe in the Bears, only because no one else does.
Mississippi State (+41/2) over GEORGIA: Why is Mississippi State the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC? Because Dan Mullen is the second best coach in the conference.
LSU (-221/2) over Syracuse: After trailing for nearly the entire game against Mississippi State, the Tigers went against their strength, throwing 29 passes, while star running back Derrius Guice had just 15 carries. Everything will look better when they can follow the pregame script.
IOWA (+12½) over Penn State: Classy James Franklin may actually need to ice the opposing kicker this week. The experienced Hawkeyes — who pulled a home upset of then-undefeated Michigan last year — haven’t lost a home game by double-digits in nearly four years, and are by far the toughest defense Penn State has played, following the Nittany Lions’ embarrassingly weak nonconference schedule.
Notre Dame (-31/2) over MICHIGAN STATE: These aren’t your older cousin’s Spartans.
Washington (-10½) over COLORADO: The Huskies — who returned 15 starters this year — will only get a share of the national spotlight when they reach a second straight playoff.
BEST BETS: Alabama, Mississippi State, Iowa
THIS SEASON: 25-20; BEST BETS: 9-0 2014-16 RECORD: 381-370-7