If in need of Hail Mary, you must go deep

HOW CAN increasing your chance of losing increase your chance of winning? It sounds ridiculous, right? Is this a paradox or is it irony? Of that we’re not sure, but the Madman is here to tell you, if you are on the trailing end after an unexpected Thursday shootout, there is a way to increase your chances of a successful rally. However, that method also increases the chances you will lose.

What you do is shoot for the moon. You bench the run-ofthe-mill, high-floor/low-ceiling player — we’re looking at you Dalvin Cook, Lamar Miller, Leonard Fournette and Jeremy Maclin And yes, that means we are willing to si t these more high-profile, more reliable options for something less desirable, but in a better position to have a breakout game.

Think of it as a Hail Mary from the 50: It is not a highpercentage pass, but what are your options? This is a desperation method. Say you’re going against Todd Gurley or Sammy Watkins or Carlos Hyde, and you have a huge deficit but lack the fire power that makes it likely you can recover. What is the difference between losing small and losing huge? Losing is losing. Throw a Hail Mary to try and win.

The best place to find these gems are in games with high Over/ Unders. You’ re looking for guys with twotouchdown potential.

First , look to Raiders-Redskins and guys like Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder or Vernon Davis (if Jordan Reed is out). You also should look at the Falcons-Lions game. There are gems to be found there. Start with Mohamed Sanu. He is getting ample targets and can be a red-zone threat. Try Tevin

Coleman over Cook or Miller. We have little faith in the Texans’ offense, and we’re not convinced Cook will get goal-line carries.

Look to Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones Jr., and do not bench Golden Tate. Or try Sterling Shepard against a beat-up Eagles secondary. If DeMarco Murray doesn’t play, Derrick Henry should get a start, even against a Seahawks defense that gave up more than 100 yards to Hyde last week, in the first half. Roll the dice on Ameer Abdullah — he does get the majority of the carries. Bench Jimmy Graham for Eric Ebron — do this even if you are ahead. Desperate time, desperate measures and all of that. Don’t do this every week. Don’ t do it this week if your squad is in good shape. Only do it if you need a miracle. Miracles are unlikely, so you might as well try for the more likely of unlikely miracles.