Deep trouble
Warren, Betances role minimized in Yankees' pen, but embattled reliever still could be factors
Dellin Betances (above) and Adam Warren were integral in the regular season but have been lost in the shuffle in the Yankees deep bullpen.
THE MARGIN is both thin and wide. Oh so close and so far to go. The Yankees are perperhaps a couple of relay plays away from leading the ALCS or being tied. Instead, they lost a pair of 2-1 games — a hit here, a pitch there. Yet, the Astros lead two games to none. So the Yankees can look back and confidently believe they are in this series despite now having to win four times in five games. Or they can look ahead and gain confidence that the series will be played differently and — in theory — in a style that favors them in The Bronx. The Yankees were an ALbest 51-30 at home this season aand are 3-0 at ththe Stadium in ththe postseason. The Astros were tied for the best road record in the majors at 53-28. But they were tied with the Indians, who allowed a Division Series they led 2-0 against the Yanks to begin to slip away by losing twice at the Stadium. But it is more than that. At home, the Yankees can hope to turn this into a bullpen game. Dallas Keuchel and Justintin Verlander combined to pitch 16 of the 18 innings at Minute Maid, and the only relievers used were Chris Devenskiski and Ken Giles, the guys in the pen whom manager A.J. Hinch most trusts. The softest spot on this Astros roster is its pitching depth. Charlie Morton and likely Brad Peacock will start the next two games, and it will be incumbent upon the Yankees offense — which led the AL in both runs and OPS at home — to get ininto the pen early, force Hinch to decide whom he trusts most among Francisco Liriano, Lance McCullers Jr. and Joe Musgrove — or some combination of all of them.
With three games in three days, it is harder to just use only the top one or two or even three relievers. Depth becomes more necessary.
Joe Girardi trusts Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman.
What might be interesting is when and if he goes to Dellin Betances and Adam Warren, two key members of the bullpen during the season who have lost status. The Yankee pen has worked nearly half of the team’s total innings this postseason — 35 of 72 ¹/3 innings. Betances and Warren have combined for just four of them.
During the season, they teamed for 117 innings and a 2.62 ERA — Betances often as the main setup man or a closer stand-in and Warren as a jack-of-all trades. Betances has lost the strike zone and, thus, a valuable role. Warren’s season was disrupted by two stints on the disabled list, first by shoulder inflammation in June then back spasms in September. He left the DL just in time to make the postseason roster but not to fully establish he is good to hand the ball to in a vital spot.
So from Games 3-5, does Girardi ever signal for Betances and Warren, and if so, where in a game — is it only, for example, in desperation after the main guys are used — and for how long? Obviously, the ability — or inability — of CC Sabathia, Sonny Gray and, if neces- sary, Masahiro Tanaka to provide length will dictate some of this.
The emergence of Green and the acquisitions of Kahnle and Robertson have made the reduction of Betances and Warren more tolerable. It also raises questions about the role of Betances and Warren beyond this season, since the current main four relievers are all under control next year, though it is possible the Yankees will see if Green can start again in 2018.
The backdrop by which to consider all offseason decision-making is Hal Steinbrenner’s demand the club drop under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold and Brian Cashman’s public vow that it will happen. It means the Yanks will look to nip and tuck payroll wherever possible. They would love to have six relievers who enjoyed extended success in 2017, but might that be a luxury that will not be affordable under the luxury tax?
MLB Trade Rumors projected Betances’ 2018 salary at $4.4 million and Warren’s at $3.1 million, though the likelihood is both would file larger requests in arbitration and the Yanks would have to budget for the potential of losing a case.
Both players are probably tradeable as every team more and more looks to deepen its pen, but you might be selling low at a time when Betances’ wildness is front and center in minds and Warren’s health has to raise concerns. Betances is a free agent after the 2019 campaign, Warren following next season.
Perhaps they will get more chances yet in 2017 to demonstrate their best side. There are three games in three days in a postseason when — more than ever — managers have been quick to go to their pens. The Yankees’ best hope to recover in this ALCS is that the best-of-seven becomes a battle of the bullpens.
Will Betances and Warren be part of their depth advantage?