TANAKA STOCK SURGING
Stellar postseason could wind up costing Yankees
HOUSTON — Masahiro Tanaka might be the best starter in these playoffs. Which is generally terrific for the Yankees. Generally. Tanaka still might not opt out of the final three years at $67 million left on his contract. Going into the playoffs, the expectation was that he would not. But if the argument against him making himself a free agent was based on questions about his skill and the health of his elbow, those are harder to make after three brilliant postseason starts.
Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish have been viewed as the best free-agent starters available, and it is possible Tanaka is no bigger risk than either of them and might be a better buy. It is easier to see how he could get more than $67 million this offseason if he decided to pursue it.
Will he? His agent, Casey Close, said he would not comment. Here are the key issues:
1. Tanaka must announce whether he is opting out or staying within three days after the World Series concludes. Until then, he is Yankees property, so his representatives by rule could not talk to other teams or send out medical information, notably about his elbow. But let’s say there is always a sense that agents have a pretty good idea what is available for their clients before the process begins.
2. Tanaka was revealed to have a partially torn UCL midway through 2014 and has seemed like a Tommy John-surgery waiting to happen. But from 2015 to 2017, the righty has made 85 regular-season starts, including 61 the past two seasons, the same as Arrieta and 13 more than Darvish.
Including the playoffs, he is at 33 starts and 198 ¹/3 innings this year, and his three playoff starts have been dominant (0.90 ERA, .138 batting average against). He has thrown hard, precisely and used all of his pitches. He did have a 4.74 ERA during the regular season, his worst as a Yankee. But he was particularly hurt by homers and his peripheral numbers suggested a lot of long-ball bad luck.
The Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Diamondbacks and Cubs were the other main suitors when Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155 million pact to come from Japan after the 2013 season. It would not be far-fetched if the Cubs, who probably will lose Arrieta and need rotation help, would pursue him again. But the mystery is what will teams be willing to do once they see MRI exams, etc.? The Cubs reportedly offered six years at $120 million the first time.
3. Tanaka has seemed to enjoy being a Yankee and will recognize this is likely to be a period in which they have a chance to play for championships every year. Does that factor into whether he opts out?
4. Concerned that CC Sabathia would use his opt out after the third season of his seven-year, $161 million pact following the 2011 season, the Yankees added two additional years at $50 million, the second guaranteed as long as he did not have a shoulder injury. For most of the time since then, the Yankees regretted the decision. But Sabathia — in this final season of the deal — has been terrific.
The Yankees know Tanaka is valuable to join with Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino for a strong rotation, especially if they fail to land Shohei Otani — and they will not know about him soon after the World Series. The Yankees love Tanaka’s professionalism and skill.
It is conceivable they could, say, add two years to Tanaka’s deal as long as it brings down the overall average value of his contract, because the Yankees are trying to get under the $197 million luxury tax threshold. If Tanaka does not opt out, he will cost $22.1 million-ish toward the payroll.
But if the Yankees, say, turned three years at $67 million into five years at $100 million, Tanaka would cost $20 million toward the payroll, and the Yankees will be trying to save every penny they can.
5. If the Yankees let Tanaka opt out without much of a fight to keep him, might the rest of the sport be scared about signing him? After all, no other club will know as much about Tanaka’s health as the Yankees.
HOUSTON — The day when Joe Girardi gathers his family to ask their opinion whether he should return as the Yankees’ manager is coming. Possibly as soon as the coming week if the Yankees don’t reach the World Series.
Girardi’s contract expires at the end of the month and it’s generally believed Hal Steinbrenner wants him back. However, Girardi needs to hear from his two daughters, son and wife about how they feel.
Based on how the family enjoyed the postseason ride before Friday night’s 7-1 loss in Game 6 of the ALCS to the Astros at Minute Maid Park, Girardi’s family will support him returning.
“They love it,’’ Girardi said when asked if his family is enjoying the improbable run that has been highlighted by the Yankees losing the first two games of the ALDS and ALCS and rebounding. “They love it. They are fired up. My son’s [Dante] voice has been gone for three days.’’
Girardi led the Yankees to the 2009 World Series title in his second year on the job. With the Yankees a win away from returning to the World Series for the first time since then, Girardi admitted it has been enjoyable.
“I have really enjoyed it. It has brought back a lot of really good memories for me,’’ Girardi said. “I have really enjoyed watching these guys do what they do and the crowds at home have been electric.’’
Roger Clemens was spotted in a first-floor hallway walking with a cell phone planted in his ear after Friday night’s Game 6.
Aaron Judge’s solo homer in the eighth inning was his third of the ALCS and tied him with Darryl Strawberry, Bernie Williams, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez for the second most homers by a Yankee in an ALCS. Robinson Cano’s four in 2010 are tops.