HEALTH TO PRAY
With so little depth, Mets will pay big again if they can’t stay off disabled list
ORLANDO, Fla. — Did you learn more from your best day or your worst? I ask because major league teams are at the roster-building portion of the program, and the annual ritual is to study what the best teams did right. So a lot of scrutiny of the Astros and Dodgers is being undertaken.
But is this backward? Or, at minimum, do the disappointing teams have as much to inform on what to avoid as the successful have to offer on what to embrace? And h ave even experts been missing this?
Consider our bookmaking friends. They did great at the very top last preseason, nearly universally picking the six division winners — Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers, Cubs and Nationals — to have the best records. What came next, though, was less impressive. Often the Mets, Giants, Blue Jays and Rangers were in the next group.
The Atlantis Sports Book, for example, projected the Mets (89.5 wins) and Giants (87.5) at fourth and fifth highest in the NL in over-under, and the Blue Jays and Rangers (both 86.5) as fourth and fifth in the AL. Those would represent the four most underachieving squads of 2017, finishing anywhere from six games under .500 (Rangers) to an MLB-worst 34 under (Giants).
So what did they share? All were playoff teams in 2015-16 except the Giants, who made the playoffs only in 2016, but had been world champions three times from 2010-14. In that capacity each of those clubs aggressively traded from its prospect base to try to win now and mostly doubleddown on its core group.
The ramifications were depleted farm systems and older rosters. In 2017 that proved devastating. More than ever the best teams are going young/athletic and deep with 25- and 40-man rosters recognizing the frequency the disabled list is used now and how vital rest has become, especially for veterans. The quartet of underperformers had not just diminishment in performance due to injury and/or age, but then did not have a next level of players capable of providing cover.
No team in 2017 used fewer than the Indians’ 41 players, and the Mariners — who also could fall in the disappointing realm for many similar reasons — used a major leaguehigh 61 (the Blue Jays were next at 60). The deficiencies showed up in every area for the washouts, but defense should not be ignored as the Mets and Giants were particularly horrible.
Thus, the commonality of these teams should scream that it is near impossible to thrive in this era without a strong core of youth and strong depth. Yet all four of those teams enter the GM meetings this week in go-for-it mode again despite continuing to be tied to their shortcomings.
Of that group, the Mets might have the least Double- and Triple-A talent that could provide help, which was a killer in 2017. Amed Rosario will be the shortstop, but that the Mets are looking for first-base help shows even they don’t believe Dom Smith is ready to help a contender — and, by the way, neither do other teams, so his trade value is not exactly strong.
Having Rosario and committing to Juan Lagares in center should boost the defense, but that assumes Rosario does not need further Triple-A seasoning and Lagares can actually stay healthy.
The Mets intend to reinforce their bullpen to better protect their fragile rotation. But the overall plan is to lower payroll from 2017 to ’18, which generally means doubling down yet again on a core group of injury-prone starters and a positional group in which hope is a huge element — hope that Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto can stay healthy, hope that Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki can perform for a full season similar to September, etc.
That the Mets picked up the $8.5 million option on Asdrubal Cabrera continued to take them back to the future. That expenditure means he is starting at second or third, though he turns 32 Monday and was falling further into a slow-twitch malaise last season. Can some of that be reversed? And even if so, is the best the Mets can hope for from him is for him to be an overall average player — which would be fine if there were a whole lot of sure above-average possibilities surrounding him?
What the Mets need most cannot be solved in a single offseason. They have drafted many players who have reached the majors in Sandy Alderson’s term, but a good deal were traded in 2015-16 and many of the remainder failed to offer even a serviceable level in 2017 when called upon — and the 2018 forecast for the farm system is that it still will not bring enough athleticism and quality to provide worthy depth.
Meaning no matter what the Mets do this offseason it will be hard to avoid a similar situation in 2018 as 2017 — a desperation for the serially unhealthy to stay off the DL. I bet Vegas does not fall for them again.