Game plans sinking old standbys
ONE OF the reasons the Patriots have been so successful over the years is Bill Belichick’s ability to adjust schemes, both offensive and defensive, based on the opposition and the strengths of his own personnel. It has been a nightmare for fantasy football owners, as we just witnessed his new game of Tight End Roulette in Sunday’s win over Denver, but it gets the job done in real life.
As a fantasy owner, it is up to you to monitor the schemes of all 32 teams and make roster adjustments accordingly. If you assume a team’s game plan is etched in stone for the year, you’re going to make mistakes with your lineup decisions each week.
The Saints, for example, have been a team well-known for gunslinging quarterback Drew Brees and their pass-heavy scheme. Not only did Brees consistently throw for 300-plus yards, but his receivers were some of the strongest plays in fantasy as a result. However, after the Week 5 bye, head coach Sean Payton made some changes as it was evident that an aging Brees just wasn’t the same.
Over the past f ive games, Payton has successfully turned to his backfield tandem of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, and used a much more run-heavy scheme on offense. Ingram averaged slightly more than 14 touches per game over the first four weeks, and Kamara averaged just under nine. Over the past five games, they are averaging 24 and 14 respectively, and the team is 5-0 in that span. Both have seen their fantasy stock rise, and each is worthy of a starting role in all fantasy formats.
As a result, the value of the wide receivers has taken a hit. There are times when the success on the ground helps open things up downfield, but overall, the Saints WR’s fantasy value has diminished. If you’re a Michael Thomas or Ted Ginn owner, you can no longer expect the 100yard, multi-touchdown efforts you’ve enjoyed in the past.
We’ve seen this in a number of other teams as well. The Panthers have adjusted to incorporate running back Christian McCaffrey more, which has pulled touches away from Jonathan Stewart as well as targets from the fringe receivers. The Cincinnati offensive line has been a mess this season, which has diminished the number of run plays they call, and Seattle has quickly gone from run-first to pass-heavy due to their lack of a strong ground game.
As a fantasy owner, keeping up with the midseason changes is paramount to your success. Everything you learned about each team in August needs to be adjusted. Without change, your team will become stagnant and your hopes of a championship will fall short.