PIVOT POINT
How to find contrarian daily options when top game is too popular
ONE WAY around a traffic jam is to pivot to a circuitous route. You are traveling a farther distance. The unimpeded track could take much longer. And if you are wrong about the jam on the main route, you have ruined your chances of a timely arrival.
But … if there are big delays, if there is a crash on a major thoroughfare, you will pass all of those headed to a similar location by using your alternative path.
If you plan on winning big in a large-entry daily fantasy tournament, if you want to do more than crack the p ayl i n e e ve r y once in a while, you have to take the road less traveled. When you go against the grain, you stand to make up more ground on a larger portion of the competition if your picks pan out.
One other caveat: You need to stack. Picking multiple players from the same game, on either side, will help ensure that if that games goes bonkers, you can vault toward the top.
So f irst, let’s pick the right game. One c l ue for which games to target is the Vegas Over/Under. You rarely see a broke bookie, so we trust these guys to have a good idea where the points will be scored.
This week, the top games to target are Patriots-Raiders (53½), Redskins-Saints (51½) and Eagles-Cowboys (49). Now let’s narrow the list. We worry about the Cowboys’ offense without Ezekiel Elliott and possibly Tyron Smith. The Saints defense still is underrated by the masses, so let’s rule out that one. And Pats-Raiders will get a huge amount of DFS action, thus making almost any of those players a chalky pick.
So we pivot to our favorite other game for big points: ChiefsGiants (45), two teams that don’t play a lot of defense. We are a bit co n - cerned about forecasts for “gusty” winds, but we’ve been burned as often by avoiding weather as we have ignoring it, and it should drive off additional usage.
We start at DraftKings by pairing a QB and receiver. Eli Manning ($5,700) is substantially cheaper (and likely less owned) than Alex Smith ($6,700). We pair him with WR Sterling Shepard ($6,300) and TE Evan Eng ram ( $ 6 ,0 0 0 ) .
W e coun- ter on the other side with RB Kareem Hunt ($8,000) and TE Travis Kelce ($7,300) as the Flex — because every TE scores against the Giants. We fill in the gaps with our other favorites, while fading the most popular (Pats-Raiders). We tab Jerick McKinnon ($5,700) and Jamison Crowder ($4,300). We use the Ravens defense ($3,400) against the Brett Hundley-led Packers. Without much cap room for our last WR spot, we have to dig deep, so we go with Bruce Ellington ($3,000), with Will Fuller out. This is our circuitous path. If there’ s a traffic jam on the more popular fantasy routes, we should do well, and if ChiefsGiants plays up to speed, we should do well.