Third base key to figuring out AL East also-rans

WATCH third base. The rest of the AL East is obviously going to talk about seeing the Yankees flex with the addition of Giancarlo Stanton and brace for a counterstrike by the Red Sox that could be an Eric Hosmer or J.D. Martinez.

But brave words will not tell as much as what the Rays do with Evan Longoria, the Blue Jays with Josh Donaldson and the Orioles with Manny Machado.

In the past, those three teams have avoided full-on tanking and tried to win in the face of whatever spending was being done by the Northeast powerhouses. And the success rate has been pretty good in recent years. Over the past five seasons, each of the five AL East teams has made the playoffs at least once.

But we may be having a bit of a back-to-the-future moment now. In the eight seasons from 1998 to 2005, the Yankees finished first and the Red Sox second every year. In 2017, the Red Sox won the AL East, the Yankees earned a wild card, and the third-place Rays were 11 games behind the Yankees. And from those cores, the Yanks already have added Stanton.

“We make our decisions independent of what other teams are doing,” Rays owner Stu Sternberg said. “At least that is our goal. Competing in the East is either impossible or next to impossible, which is why I value the AL East championships we have won as our brightest accomplishments.”

Longoria has represented the one immovable piece in the Rays’ everchanging cast. They have signed him long-term on two different occasions, and he is under control through 2023. But more than ever, Tampa is considering a pivot and will listen on the greatest player in its history, as well as starters Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi and closer Alex Colome.

The Orioles have been more defiant about not breaking up. But Machado, Zach Britton and Adam Jones are all free agents after 2018, Baltimore’s rotation is currently shorthanded. and its farm system is not ready to provide big-time support.

“It’s nothing new as far as the challenge to the rest of the division,” manager Buck Showalter said. “But God bless the Yankees, if I were them, I’d do the same thing.”

Like Machado, Donaldson is in his walk year. The Blue Jays are looking for corner-outfield bats to continue to try to win with their current group while not doing the kind of long-term deals or trade significant prospects that would unsettle the near future. Toronto officials know the team has done a good job regaining a fan base’s support and do not want to disenchant them with a sell-off.

The current belief is that Longoria is much more likely to be dealt this offseason than Machado or Donaldson, but since Machado and Donaldson are in their walk years, if the AL East plays out as expected — with the Red Sox and Yankees separating themselves at the top — then already you could see Machado and Donaldson becoming the biggest names discussed at the July trade deadline.