MANNY OBSTACLES TO ANY DEAL
Dealing Machado would be challenge, especially to Yanks
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — It has not been in the Orioles’ makeup to surrender in the AL East, regardless of how pumped up the rosters of the Yankees and Red Sox may become.
GM Dan Duquette has stated that he hates the idea of giving up in any season, that it is his desire to go for it even after the Yankees obtained Giancarlo Stanton and with the Red Sox striving to add a big bat.
But the confluence of factors he is facing is forcing him to listen on Zach Britton and Manny Machado — listening on Machado with more seriousness than ever before.
Three people who would be involved if there were discussions between the Yankees and Orioles involving Machado said either it was not happening or the name has not come up. The Yankees have an opening at third base with the trade of Chase Headley. But this version of the Yankees is way more hesitant to trade significant prospects for a player who can be a free agent after the season.
Plus, the Yankees could not acquire Machado, add more starting pitching and keep under the $197 million luxury tax as vowed, unless Jacoby Ellsbury was in a trade back to the Orioles, and Ellsbury almost certainly would not waive his no-trade for Baltimore.
Besides Machado, Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach are all free agents after this season and the early expectation is that all of them will leave, making now and perhaps the July 31 trade deadline the last, best times for Baltimore to translate them into future pieces.
And the Orioles need future pieces, because their farm system is rated among the majors’ worst. In addition, to go for it now, Baltimore probably would have to add two quality starters, perhaps more than that, and the perception still would be that the Orioles are a lot closer to the Blue Jays and Rays than the Red Sox and Yankees.
Machado likely will approach $20 million in his final year of arbitration and is expected to be, along with Bryce Harper, the marquee name in what is lining up as perhaps the best free-agent class ever next offseason. Harper and Machado, because of their talent and youth, are both expected to top Giancarlo Stanton’s largestever $325 million contract — possibly by quite a bit.
To move Machado now, though, would require the baseball equivalent of threading a needle.
The Orioles would require a huge haul in return to deal their best player, and because he only has one year to free agency and almost certainly will test the market, it is probably reasonable to believe the only clubs that would consider giving up a substantial amount for him are those that believe they can re-sign him.
And to further complicate the issue, in the words of another AL executive about Duquette, “You have easily the most unpredictable GM in baseball.”
The Cardinals stand out as having a large amount of near major league-ready prospects, a desire to acquire a big bat and the wherewithal to sign Machado after the season.
The Phillies have the need and resources, but they are not likely to contend this year, so unless they got a window to sign him as a provision of a trade, it would not make sense to obtain Machado. And the expectation is Machado and his agent, Dan Lozano, are expected to vie with Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, for who gets the largest contract next offseason.