CLASS OF 2018 ALWAYS ON YANKS’ MIND
A look at top 10 of loaded 2018 free-agent class — which is robbing ’17 class
THE ABSENCE of the Yankees and Dodgers from the highend bidding has been instrumental in a slow-moving freeagent market, as has the presence of Manny Machado in trade discussions. Without the coastal financial behemoths to drive up prices, players and their representatives are missing a key element to raise bidding. With Machado obtainable — like Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna before him — teams have an option to consider outside of free agency. The tighter finances of the Dodgers and Yankees and the availability of Machado h ave more to do with next year’s freeagent market than this one. The Dodgers and Yankees derive many benefits if they meet their vow to sink under t he $197 mil - lion luxury-tax threshold for 2018. One vital benefit is that it would reset the tax — from 50 percent to 20 percent — should they exceed the threshold in 2019. And next year’s free-agent class is going to tempt them (and just about every club) because it might be the most star-laced ever, including Machado. The Orioles, with a tiny chance of re-signing Machado, have decided to see if they can turn him into multiple prospects now rather than receiving just draft-pick compensation later. That next year’s crop will be deep and special remains pretty much unquestioned. What has changed is who makes up the best of the class. When I first tackled a top 10 in March 2016, Matt Harvey ranked fifth and Jose Fernandez sixth. Charlie Blackmon and Daniel Murphy were not a consideration for that list, but were in last March’s top 10. With three heavyweights — Dodgers, Yankees and Machado — in the news because of the 2018-19 class, I thought I wouldn’t wait to March again to do a top-10 list:
MANNY MACHADO
He is coming off a down season (.782 OPS). OPS There are some questions of temperament per and there is some lingering worry wo about surgeries performed on both bot knees. But even in a down year, he had 67 extra-base hits, played brilliant lia defense as always and played in 156 15 games, the third straight season he h has played at least that many. He and Bryce Harper — and by extension their powerful agents, Dan Lozano and Scott Boras — are going to slug it out next season to see who beats out Stanton ($325 million) for the largest pact ever ($400 million is in play, maybe even $500 million). Machado gets the slight nod because of his defensive value, which would only rise if he moves back to short this season.
2. BRYCE HARPER
The expectation for so long was that he would end up a Yankee, but if you hadn’t heard, their corner outfield now has Stanton and Aaron Judge. That can hurt his market. But not much. It is important to remember both Harper and Machado will play at 25 next year and both are younger than Judge.
3. CLAYTON KERSHAW
Unless his back issues completely level him or another serious injury arises, Kershaw will almost certainly opt out of the f inal two years at $65 million owed him. At which point the fascination will become whether the Dodgers, with greater discipline when it comes to f inances, will ignore the back and calendar (Kershaw turns 30 in March) to lavish another record pact for a pitcher on the great lefty.
In the same genre, it is less certain that David Price opts out of the final four years of his deal at $127 million since there are even more health concerns with him plus questions whether he will remain an elite starter. But might he want to exit Boston so much that he puts himself back on the market?
4. DALLAS KEUCHEL
With all the talk for years that the Yankees would end up with Harper or Machado from this class, I might put my money on Keuchel, who turns 30 next month, as a latter-day Jimmy Key — an athletic lefty, proven postseason performer whose craftiness should allow his stuff to age well.
5. CHARLIE BLACKMON
Two years ago, Andrew McCutchen or A.J. Pollock lined up as the best center fielder in this class. But Blackmon just finished fifth in the NL MVP voting. The concerns: 1. He turns 32 in July; 2. His 1.239 OPS at home (.784 away) reflects that he gets big advantages from playing at Coors Field.
6. JOSH DONALDSON
He would be in line for similar pay to Machado if not for the age discrepancy (Donaldson turned 32 t his month). He still posted huge numbers last season even with a calf injury having cost him six weeks early.
7. ANDREW MILLER
One of the captivating storylines from next offseason is which great reliever gets the biggest contract with Miller, Zach Britton and Craig Kimbrel all due to be free. And, by the way, the next level of relievers includes Kelvin Herrera, Cody Allen, Brad Brach, Jeurys Familia, Ryan Madson and David Robertson.
8. MARWIN GONZALEZ
The way the game is trending has elevated Gonzalez’ s reputation, with the ability to play multiple positions well, and so did a career-best .907 OPS last year in his age-28 season.
9. ELVIS ANDRUS
Not long ago, it seemed unlikely he would opt out of the final four years at $58 million due. But then in 2017 Andrus had a 20-homer, 25-steal, .808-OPS season to go along with his usual stellar defense. Plus, he will play next year at 29, and as great as this freeagent class looks, it does not have shortstop depth.
10. DANIEL MURPHY
There were a lot of ways to go for final spot on this list, with even Brian Dozier and DJ LeMahieu second-base options over Murphy, who does turn 33 in April and had right knee surgery in the offseason. Players such as Harvey, Michael Brantley, McCutchen and Garrett Richards will try to recapture a better piece from their past. Lefty starters Patrick Corbin, Gio Gonzalez, Drew Pomeranz and perhaps even Cole Hamels, if his option is not picked up, are scheduled to be part of this class, as are Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Joe Mauer and Charlie Morton.
The quality and depth show why the Dodgers and Yankees are angling to position themselves as well as possible for next year’s free-agent class even while a logjam remains with this one.