$ MALL BALL
WHY METS ARE REDUCING OPENING DAY PAYROLL BY $20 MILLION
THE Mets’ payroll — more than public statement — often best reveals what team decision-makers actually believe about their chances to win.
Last year, coming off consecutive playoff berths and with what they thought was a powerhouse rotation, the Mets set a franchise record for an Opening Day payroll at about $155 million as, notably, they agreed to the largest per-annum contract in their history with Yoenis Cespedes, paid Neil Walker the $17.2 million qualifying offer and did not trade all or part of Jay Bruce’s $13 million salary.
That was not Yankees money, but it was large for the Mets and will dwarf what is coming now. For the opening payroll number will be roughly $20 million less in 2018, a concession that the rotation might never be the powerhouse they hoped it would be. That realization, in conjunction with other factors, has lowered the Mets’ internal assessment of their playoff chances from this time last year. And, thus, lowered how much the Wilpons and Saul Katz are willing to invest in the roster.
They have not surrendered to a rebuild, banking in particular that Mickey Callaway, Dave Eiland and an upgraded devotion to preparing and monitoring their pitchers will allow the Mets to rebound toward 85-plus wins. But there also will not be a significant offseason splurge. Sandy Alderson has roughly $10 million remaining to spend on free agents or trades and can expand that to a larger amount if he can, say, deal someone such as Juan Lagares or AJ Ramos.
The way the Mets have operated under Wilpon ownership is that the general manager receives a general payroll number — this year it will be in the mid-$130 millions, from what I have deduced in conversations with people inside and outside the organization. But the Wilpons then tell their GM to come to them with any deal he likes regardless of cost and sell the merits, and that leaves open the possibility of increasing payroll.
But, again, that sales job is easier to make in years when the leadership believes it has a strong contender.
Thus, Alderson is maneuvering under a tight window the rest of this offseason, which is why after inking Anthony Swarzak, he is in a bit of a financial Four Corners hoping — with many other teams in the sport — that players lower demands in January as they remain unemployed and spring training approaches.
But the reduction in payroll means, for example, the Indians’ Jason Kipnis (owed two years at $30.5 million) almost certainly will be beyond the imposed financial parameters.
Perhaps the price for a Todd Frazier (with Asdrubal Cabrera moving to second) or Walker falls enough to work in this Mets budget as one more infield bat with pop is prioritized. As for further areas of need — another reliever, perhaps some more starting depth, a first baseman — think discount rack and minor league contracts.
Alderson and his lieutenants have mentioned quite often in recent weeks the February signings last year of Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas came at lower prices than expected when that offseason began. That is not an accident. This is Mets leadership subliminally preparing its fans for what is coming next.
The Mets, for example, never even called on Matt Adams, who signed for $4 million to be the NL East-favorite Nationals’ backup first baseman to Ryan Zimmerman at a time when the Mets are at least contemplating needing a starter other than Dominic Smith. This is why the Mets have inquired on Adrian Gonzalez, who would cost his next signing team just the $545,000 minimum salary, with the Braves and Dodgers picking up the rest of his $21.5 million 2018 pact.
Perhaps sometime after the new year, the price for a Mike Napoli or Mark Reynolds or some other veteran first baseman will drop enough that the Mets bite. They also are hoping to use, among other things, Callaway’s expertise to try to unearth the 2017 version of Swarzak, who signed a minor league deal with the White Sox late last January and pitched so well while making just $900,000 that he was traded into a playoff race with the Brewers and ultimately earned a twoyear, $14 million deal with the Mets.
Swarzak participated in an introductory conference call with reporters Thursday — the first day of winter. The symbolism was hard to miss, with the Mets’ payroll mostly frozen this offseason.