Tesla’s Model 3 deliveries stalling out

Tesla is likely to deliver about 5,000 Model 3s in the fourth quarter, KeyBanc Capital Markets analysts said on Wednesday, which is far below the brokerage’s previous estimate of 15,000.

The numbers indicate that the electric carmaker may still not be out of its self-described “manufacturing hell” for the production of the $35,000 Model 3 sedan.

KeyBanc analysts based their projections on the results of conversations last week with Tesla salespeople at 18 of the company’s stores in the United States.

“We talked to stores in California doing as many as a dozen per week with around 10 being the average, and we estimate stores outside of California were doing something closer to half a dozen per week,” the analysts wrote.

Tesla’s shares fell 1.8 percent, to $311.64, Wednesday.

Palo Alto, Calif.-based Tesla made just 260 Model 3 sedans in the third quarter — in contrast to its own target to build more than 1,500 — due to what it called “production bottlenecks.”

The company said in November it now expects to build 5,000 Model 3s per week late in the first quarter of 2018.

The original 5,000-per-week target date was December.

Any further delay in Model 3 production could lead to postponed sales and exacerbate Tesla’s cash burn.

Over 500,000 customers have put down a refundable deposit for the car.

Tesla could not immediately be reached for comment.

However, KeyBanc maintained its “sector weight” rating on the stock.

Bullish investors in particular remain more focused on that the car is being produced with minimal defects and that consumer reviews and response are favorable, the brokerage said.