US must do everything O wouldn’t
THE foreign-policy establishment and former Obama administration staffers seem to agree about two things concerning the protests in Iran. One is that the Trump administration should follow the example of his predecessor, who was largely silent the last time the Iranian people took to the streets to challenge their Islamist oppressors. The other is that on no account should any discussion about the current situation in Iran be linked to efforts to throw out or change the nuclear deal President Obama concluded with the same people who are ordering thugs to gun down protesters. They’re wrong on both counts. By speaking out on events in Iran, President Trump is passing a test Obama failed. Obama’s reluctance to discuss dissent in Iran sent protesters a message that they were on their own and that the regime had a pass to do its worst. The establishment is chiding Trump and telling us American advocacy will only hurt the protesters. But, as was the case with the former Soviet Union, the support of the free world for those fighting tyranny not only encourages dissenters but also reminds the tyrants they are the ones who are isolated.
It’s also a mistake to act as if what’s going on in Iran right now must be kept separate from the nuclear deal.
The deal’s apologists are correct when they say the agreement was solely focused on nuclear issues and ignored Iran’s quest for regional hegemony, terrorism, missiles and human rights. But it was still a swindle, since the sunset clauses Obama conceded mean that within another decade, the weak restrictions on their nuclear program will expire and Tehran will be able to resume work on a bomb and still be in compliance with its obligations.
Trump is right that it must be changed.
Ordinary Iranians were promised the nuclear deal would end their country’s isolation and, therefore, improve their lot. If it hasn’t, it’s not because the West has reneged on its pledges, but because the only real beneficiaries of the deal have been regime entities like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. That’s why rather than refraining from bringing the pact into current discussions, the West must make it clear to Tehran that if it isn’t prepared to give up those sunset clauses, more sanctions will follow. President Trump can, if he likes, blow up the deal this month, but the smarter play would be to begin a real effort to renegotiate it with the threat of crippling sanctions on Iran’s European trade partners to back it up.
Obama discarded all of the West’s considerable leverage in his blind pursuit of a deal on any terms. Trump can’t undo that fiasco on his own, but the protests present the world with a golden opportunity to get a lot of that leverage back. Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is trying to delude Iranians into thinking the protests are a plot hatched by Trump, Israel and the Saudis. But if he lets his country sink back into further economic misery, the price of suppressing the growing voices of dissent will rise to a point where even he knows it can’t be paid.
That makes this the ideal moment to make it clear to Iran that if it wants to trade with the rest of the world and prosper, it must concede that, at the very least, the sunset clauses in the nuclear deal must be voided.
Trump shouldn’t be deterred by the bad advice of a bankrupt foreign-policy establishment. Instead of remaining silent or pretending that Obama’s decision to seek a deal with Iran didn’t contribute to the problems inside that country, this is the moment to act.