Surge in migrants fuels crime spike

German study points to young men

The recent influx of mostly young, male migrants into Germany has led to an increase in violent crime in the country, according to a government-funded study published Wednesday.

The study used figures from the northern state of Lower Saxony to examine the impact of refugee arrivals on crime in 2015 and 2016, when the number of violent crimes reported increased by 10.4 percent.

The authors concluded that 92 percent of the additional crimes recorded could be attributed to the increase in refugees.

It noted that the demographic composition of the refugee population is a major factor. Young males — whether Germans or migrants — are more likely to commit crimes, but also more likely to become victims of violence.

The findings add to the ongoing debate in Germany about how to tackle migrant crime, which has been fanned by a number of high-profile incidents. Parties on the right, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Union bloc, want more deportations, while those on the left say more needs to be done to integrate refugees into German society.

“It is true that since 2015 there has been a rise in violent crime that the authors attribute to the arrival of refugees,” said Verena Herb, a spokeswoman for the Families Ministry, which commissioned the study by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences. “But they also make very clear that refugees aren’t generally more criminal than, for example, Germans.”

Herb said the biggest problems seemed to come from young men who see little hope for their futures. Afghans and Syrians were less likely to commit crimes than migrants from North Africa, who stand little chance of receiving permission to stay in Germany, the study found.

The report also notes that people are twice as likely to report crimes committed by people who are different from them, causing some distortion in the crime statistics.