PATS WILL GO UNDER/COVER
Brady & Co. will coast to low-scoring win
TOM Coughlin has been labeled the Patriots’ Kryptonite thanks to his stunning victories over Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI as Giants coach.
Now Coughlin, who at 71 is in his first season as executive vice president of football operations with the Jaguars, has a chance to do it again — this time in the AFC Championship game, and more importantly, with Blake Bortles at quarterback instead of Eli Manning.
There’s one major aspect of the Giants’ upsets that the Jaguars can emulate. All but 6.5 of Jacksonville’s 55 sacks in the regular season came from defensive linemen — led by Calais Campbell’s 14.5 and Yannick Ngakoue’s 12, with eight apiece by Malik Jackson and Dante Fowler. So the Jaguars should be able to put some heat on Brady and still have seven men left to cover the many receiving threats. The teams that have to blitz to get near Brady are at a far greater disadvantage.
Two other things are impressive about the Jaguars:
One, they have an elite running back in Leonard Fournette, who rushed for 1,040 and nine touchdowns in just 13 games in the regular season. When you have a horse like that, you have a shot to control the clock and keep Brady off the field for a while.
Two, they play with no fear — not like a team that hadn’t been to the playoffs since the Bush Administration. In Pittsburgh last week, t hey took every opportunity to get in the Steel - ers faces to tell them they were kicking their butts. That the score ended up 45-42 and Pittsburgh had a big edge in yardage was not indicative of what happened on the field for three hours. Two long touchdown passes on fourth downs by Ben Roethlisberger skewed the stats.
So the Jags are a legitimate challenger to the Patriots’ AFC throne, but don’t overthink this. Each play will start in either the hands of Brady or Bortles, and you know which side you need to be on. The Patriots are 6-1 in the Brady-Belichick era in home AFC title games, winning big in the past two (45-7 over the Colts in the Deflategate game in the 2014 postseason, and 36-17 over the Steelers last year). They’re on a big roll against the spread, having covered 10 of their past 11 games, four of those with doubl e - digit spreads. Presuming Brady’s hand will be fine by Sunday afternoon, the expectation here is he’ll do what he normally does. Spread the field and make quick throws to the likes of Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan, mixed with some screens to James White and quick-hitting handoffs to Dion Lewis attacking the interior. Most of the time, the ball will be gone before Campbell and Ngakoue get near Brady. After he gets a feel for where the heat’s coming from, Brady will pick his spots to find Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks.
Defensively, Belichick and Matt Patricia will take away Fournette as the primary threat and force Bortles to make plays. In Brady’s house, with the Super Bowl on the line, he won’t make nearly enough.
The picks: Patriots -7¹/₂ and Under 46¹/₂
Patriots, 31-13 Vikings (-3) over EAGLES; Under 38¹/₂: Suspect that was the real Vikings defense that shut out the Saints in the first half last week. The second half was a concern, for sure, but sometimes a great quarterback such as Drew Brees can do that to even the best defenses. It would be a feat for Nick Foles to try to replicate that. Like the Patriots, the Vikings enter the title game r i di ng a betting wave. They are 10-1-1 against the spread in their past 12, and they were favored in all but two of those games. Much of that success has been a product of quick starts. In the past four games, Minnesota has led at the half 24-0, 10-0, 16-7 and 17-0. Conversely, the Eagles have scored 7, 0 and 9 in the first half of their last three games.
Respect the Eagles, particularly in the home underdog role (those dog masks are fantastic!). Their defense has rallied big time around Foles, giving up 10, 6 and 10 points in the past three games after yielding 34 to the Giants in his first start. Giving up 10 to the Falcons in a playoff game is a serious accomplishment.
But the expectation here is Case Keenum is more accurate and in better form than is Foles. Vikings receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs get open and move the chains, and Eagles corners have been susceptible to the double-move.
Minnesota brings it home for Super Bowl LII.
Vikings, 21-16 LAST WEEK: 4-3-1. LOCK OF THE WEEK: Finished with a 7-11-1 record for 2017-18.