Ice-cold market will help Yanks as season heats up
TAMPA — Every day that goes by without a rush of free-agent signings is a victory for the Yankees. With the opening of spring training this week, teams can expect the asking prices to fall for the unemployed. That aids any club, though the Yankees more than many as they count every penny to stay under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold.
In addition, the Yanks believe they have internal answers at their most dubious areas: second/third base and the rotation. Already their coaches have gotten an eyeful of a bunch of candidates during informal workouts at their minor league complex. Beginning with pitchers and catchers officially going on the field Wednesday, Yankees decision-makers will get an even better view of what they have.
A baseball adage is that spring training and September are deceptive and, thus, no firm plans should be made off of performance in those periods. Still, the Yankees will have a better idea of ability and conditioning in the coming days. The ideal scenario is internal answers allow the Yankees to keep all of their prospects and available dollars into the season when, say, new problems could arise. What happens, for example, if Gary Sanchez breaks his thumb or Greg Bird blows out a hamstring? What looms over this season for the Yankees is that $197 million mandate. Every dollar spent now threatens their ability in the marketplace come, say, July. The Yankees have about $30 million left to cover the rest of their 25-man roster (they have 15 players signed), their in-season call-ups, performance and award bonuses reached by players and any trade acquisitions made during the season — though they could create more room by trading veterans, notably their hope to move as much of Jacoby Ellsbury’s remaining three years at $68.4 million as possible.
They would love to add rotation depth to Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. In the short run, they can see if Chad Green’s relief brilliance last year translates back to the rotation. Or if Luis Cessa’s rededication to getting into shape helps him regaing trust with his bosses. Or if prospects such as Chance Adams, Domingo German or Just us Sheffield are close to helping.
Meanwhile, a slew of starters remains unsigned, even as Yu Darvish agreed with the Cubs. There are top-of-the-market figures such as Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. But there also are those who might not cost much if the Yankees suddenly decide they just need an arm to better survive the first few months. Think Wade Miley, Ricky Nolasco, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman and Jason Vargas.
Again, the idea would be to retain money and prospects if a starter such as Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Michael Fulmer or James Paxton becomes available in July. The Yankees were prioritizing Gerrit Cole (who went to Houston), and unless prices fall precipitously on a Cobb or Lynn, or the Yanks incur a significant rotation injury in spring, they seem ready to plug and wait for better inventory.
As for second/third base, the Yankees believe the future is Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar. But is that now? Later within the 2018 season? 2019? They think Tyler Wade projects as a starter despite his poor cameo last year. The strength of the rest of the lineup might allow the Yanks to get away with some combo of Danny Espi- nosa, Jace Peterson and Ronald Torreyes until Torres/Andujar are ready.
Meanwhile, they wait to see if the prices for Neil Walker or Eduardo Nunez fall in the wake of Todd Frazier signing (two years, $17 million with the Mets). The Yankees like that Walker is a switch hitter, but his lack of experience at third base and injury history give them pause. The Yanks like Nunez’s athleticism, but also are concerned with his injury history plus committing themselves to being even more right-handed.
They also know that, among others, Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar and Brandon Phillips remain free agents. In addition, Mike Moustakas is out there without a clear market. Thus, they can hold their money and wonder if he and agent Scott Boras eventually take a one-year “pillow” contract to set him up for next offseason. If so, would the Yankees be most attractive as a contender with a home stadium that accentuates his lefty power?
In addition, the Yanks could be relatively sure that some or all from Miami’s Derek Dietrich and Martin Prado, Oakland’s Jed Lowrie, Tampa Bay’s Brad Miller, Milwaukee’s Eric Sogard and Jonathan Villar, the Angels’ Luis Valbuena and maybe even the Mets’ Asdrubal Cabrera could be had via a spring training trade if necessary.
As with a starter, the Yankees do not want to give up too many dollars or prospects when July might bring the availability of free-agents-to-be Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado.
This will be the Yankees’ dance all year — how and when they use their prospects and dollars with the demands to win now, but also not exceed the luxury-tax threshold.