One Ell' of a chance, just not a big one
TAMPA — This is Aaron Hicks, not Hank Aaron or even Aaron Judge. He just had his best season and it included two DL stints and a narrative that he was as serious about baseball as golf. So if Jacoby Ellsbury ended up playing center field for the Yankees more often than Hicks in 2018, well, that wouldn’t exactly be like predicting Danny DeVito to replace Chris Hemsworth as Thor. But in the here and now, Ellsbury is the cocktail dress at an Amish wedding. He doesn’t fit well on this Yankee roster, payroll or with the camp’s Kumbaya vibe. He already had lost his role atop the order and in center even before the December acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Thus, there is now a clearer path to regular playing time to open the 2018 season for non-roster invitee Danny Espinosa than Ellsbury — baseball’s first-ever $153 million pinch runner. “Nothing is set in stone,” Ellsbury said. “I don’t see a lineup up there for Opening Day.” Indeed. Ronald Torreyes was the Opening Day shortstop last year, Austin Romine the primary catcher a week into the season and Chris Carter the first baseman by early May because of injuries to Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird. Stuff happens. Roles change. “Can [Ellsbury] win his job back?” Brian Cashman asked rhetorically. “Absolutely.” But that would probably be more about Hicks losing the job than Ellsbury winning it, such is the two players’ status as fullsquad workouts begin. And that is the perspective within the Yankees walls. Outside, Ellsbury is viewed in a worse light, as if the $153 million is his fault not the Yankees’.
It should be remembered that Scott Boras did not bring a gun into negotiations. The Yanks gave the seven-year contract foolishly believing Ellsbury and Gardner in the same outfield and hitting 1-2 was a cornerstone to success.
That is how Ellsbury — the fifth choice for the Yankee outfield, sixth if you like Clint Frazier better — will be the majors’ seventh-highest-paid outfielder in 2018 behind Mike Trout, Yoenis Cespedes, Stanton, Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward and Matt Kemp (yep, Ellsbury is not the only regrettable long-term contract in the game).
But look beyond the contract and Ellsbury — at any price — is still among the majors’ 90 best outfielders, quality enough to be a starter somewhere.
“He’s a good player,” Cashman said. “Public perception and reality don’t match up.”
Nevertheless, Ellsbury is the Yankees’ math problem. They can’t make five go into four (three outfield jobs and the DH). Aaron Boone said Judge and Stanton will play daily, and that Gardner will be a regular, albeit with some more off-days to preserve his body, mostly against lefties. That won’t help the leftyswinging Ellsbury much. There were 12 outfielders last year with a .900 OPS or better versus lefties (minimum 125 plate appearances) and the Yanks have three (Hicks, Judge and Stanton).
But the bigger math problem involves $197 million. That is the luxury-tax threshold the Yanks have vowed to stay under, and Ellsbury takes up 11.1 percent of that at $21.86 million — quite a lot to be the 2018 Yankees’ Homer Bush. The Yankees would love to remove as much of what remains on Ellsbury’s deal ($68.4 million over three years) as possible to create more wiggle room for now and the July trade market.
The Yanks initially tried to include Ellsbury as a financial counterweight in the Stanton trade, but the Marlins said no. Cashman says nothing has made enough sense since to see if Ellsbury would waive his no-trade clause and Ellsbury refused hypotheticals about what it would take to agree to a trade.
Instead, in an 11-minute session with the media during positionplayer report day, Ellsbury stuck to a script of happiness that Stanton was obtained to improve the team and defiance that “I have a ton of baseball left” and “your role can change in one game, it can change in one pitch.”
Cashman called it “survival of the fittest, the best man wins every year” and then listed a few through the years such as Robinson Cano unseating Tony Womack and Alfonso Soriano knocking Chuck Knoblauch off of second base, though both veterans were on multi-year deals.
That being said, the Yankees think there is ceiling not yet reached by Hicks and it is his job to lose. Could he? Sure. As recently as 2016, Hicks had the majors’ second-worst OPS-plus among outfielders (minimum 360 plate appearances). Injuries lurk, though Ellsbury’s fragility has been part of the problem.
“If [Ellsbury plays well], there are going to be regular opportunities,” Boone said.
That sounds nice. But, right now, the math doesn’t work for Ellsbury as a Yankee.