AARON JUDGE, LEADING MAN
SLUGGER MAY BAT FIRST VS. LEFTIES
TAMPA — Free your mind.
A wise baseball executive once told me that daily he imagined a part of his organization did not exist and — liberated from precedent — what he would do differently. For example, say the minor leagues never were, could this executive conceive of a better, more efficient way to get players to the majors? This exercise allowed him to constantly consider whether his franchise was operating out of habit or in the best way possible.
Which brings us to Aaron Judge leading off, as he did Friday against Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson. Judge is at least in consideration to continue doing against southpaws, including Toronto’s J.A. Happ on Opening Day.
My question is not why are the Yankees doing this? It is why didn’t they do it earlier in spring? Aaron Boone said it did not become a serious factor until a Thursday bus ride from Fort Myers back to Tampa as he drilled down on how the Yankees would line up against teams with lefty starters and lefty relief options.
If that is the case, shame on the manager and the Yankees for not considering this more earnestly earlier. After all, spring training is a laboratory. The games don’t count. So why not experiment and see how players feel about it and react to it? There is no commitment to buy, simply to test drive.
Because — really — free your mind. Ignore the prototype established over the years. The concept of a lineup isn’t to fit pieces into established roles. It is to maximize scoring potential. Period.
Historically, you would want a speed guy atop the lineup. But teams have defanged the steal, with an average of just .52 per game each of the past three years — the lowest since 1972. Plus, if some combination of Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez are batting behind the leadoff hitter, red lights will be frequent as to not risk an out on the bases ahead of sluggers who can score any runner from first base.
So what would the Yankees specifically want?
A guy who works pitchers, reaches base frequently, plus offers a greater potential to make it 1-0 with a swing.
Judge actually produced much better against righties last year. But he led the majors in pitches per plate appearance versus southpaws (4.69) and had a .439 on-base percentage. Stanton’s onbase percentage versus lefties was better at .449, but he averaged just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance (which was 147th among those with 100 plate appearances).
But it is what Stanton promises in the No. 2 hole that makes him fascinating if Judge continued to reach base at a high rate. Stanton hit 15 homers off southpaws last year, which was second in the majors, and slugged .764 (third). So the Yankees could have the wearying, frightening impact of that duo hitting 1-2 against lefties.
Usual leadoff hitter Brett Gardner saw a terrific 4.31 pitches per plate appearance versus lefties, but he had just a .299 on-base percentage and his .590 OPS was the 13th-worst (minimum 100 plate appearances). So if Gardner plays against lefties, perhaps he will hit ninth as he did versus Johnson, or not play with Sanchez moving to designated hitter, and Stanton and Judge flanking Aaron Hicks in the outfield. Also, once the lineup turns over, Gardner, when he does play, would serve as a leadoff type in front of Judge and Stanton.
“Boone asked our staff what is the best lineup configuration we can use to produce the most runs,” general manager Brian Cashman said when discussing Judge leading off. “It’s no different than when we had Joe Girardi here. We will look at it and evaluate it. The only difference is that there was no such thing as Judge [as a known commodity] at this time last year. This is an example of processing the information and deciding to take the next step. This is all his initiation based on information he has asked for, and an engaging one.”
Cashman invoked mentor Gene Michael a few times to say Stick expounded that a lineup should bat the best hitters in order, though that would defy tradition of having the best hitters bat third and fourth. Cashman was sublimi- nally attempting to keep this from being about modern analytics because Michael was notably old school.
Former Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson would invoke the Rule of 39 — that if a team sent 39 men to the plate in a game, its chances to win greatly elevated because that assured the third hitter batted a fifth time. So why not make it the Rule of 37, which would assure a fifth at-bat for the leadoff hitter if that is, indeed, the best hitter?
One reason not to do it would be if the players were uncomfortable, which Judge insisted would not be an issue. But the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber said the same last year and faltered early as a nontraditional leadoff man, with no way of knowing if that triggered his down year.
It is why the Yankees should really have been experimenting all spring. But at least they got to it — a look does not hurt.
Free your mind. It doesn’t matter if there has ever been a 6-foot-7 leadoff hitter before, only if it helps the Yankees maximize run scoring in 2018.