FINDING WEEK SPOTS
An early look at MLB trends, what they mean
AWEEK. What does a week tell you in a 26-week regular season? Sometimes a lot. The Twins, Diamondbacks and Rockies got off great in the first week last year and were the most surprising playoff entrants in the end. Conversely, a week into last year neither Jose Altuve nor Giancarlo Stanton had an extra- base hit or much impact. They won the MVPs.
So good luck deciphering what to value with 96 percent of the season left. So, I would rather talk first impressions and what made me take notice in a stronger way about how matters will play out the next 25 weeks:
DODGER DOGS
When a sewage pipe broke at Dodger Stadium and flooded the field with, um, stuff, midway t hrough the final exhibition March 27 against the Angels, forcing the cancellation of the rest of the game, did anyone see an omen? Because the, um, stuff continued to flow for L.A. once the season began. The Dodgers lost two 1-0 games to the Giants, rebounded with two wins, then were swept three games by the Diamondbacks. Their 2-5 start was their worst since 1998 — the season they famously traded away Mike Piazza. Keep in mind, L.A. opened last year 10-12 then spent four months essentially not losing, winning 81-of-105 games, which allowed the Dodgers to withstand a final fiveweek collapse and still earn their fifth straight NL West title handily. And seven bad games will not alter their favorite status. But I have been thinki ng for quite a while about the seven powerhouse teams that opened this season (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians, Cubs, Nationals) and what would stop each from achieving the expected.
The Dodgers share much with the Yankees. They are a financial behemoth that decided this year to try to drop under the $197 million luxury-tax threshold. That meant cautious offseason spending, notably not addressing rotation depth. Thus, the Dodgers will look to prospects Walker Buehler and Mitchell White for depth as much as the Yanks might have to lean on Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield.
L.A. also needs its Rookie of the Year (Cody Bellinger) to show last year was no fluke, similar to Aaron Judge.
Distinct worry spots: Closer Kenley Jansen’s fastball average is down 3 mph from last year, and he was beat up in his first two outings (no strikeouts, two homers). Also, the Dodgers were shut out in three of their first seven games, and their best hitter, Justin Turner (fractured left wrist), is not due back before May. Also, Arizona and Colorado are good, and San Francisco and San Diego may be better than last year. The NL West is no pushover.
ASTRO-NOMICAL
Of the seven powerhouses, Houston looked the most complete on paper. But would the Astros be complacent after the first title in franchise history?
Well, a week into the season they led the AL in runs and were second in ERA. Gerrit Cole, Houston’s big offseason add, pitched great.
From April 30-May 3, the Yankees are in Houston, then from May 24-June 3, the Astros have seven at the Indians and Yankees before four at home against the Red Sox. At the conclusion we should have a better idea if any AL team is in Houston’s weight class.
ORIOLES HAVE MANNY PROBLEMS
Baltimore had a 5.70 rotation ERA last year, its worst since it stopped being the St. Louis Browns in 1954. The Orioles resigned Chris Tillman, added Andrew Cashner and will get Alex Cobb soon after signing him during spring training. The rotation ERA was 5.23 after a week and the Zach Britton-less bullpen’s was 5.73.
Perhaps every team that plays the strong offenses of the Twins and Astros will have problems. Or maybe the Orioles are just going to have problems again. They opened 1-5. And they have to keep one eye on their record and one on reality. They almost certainly are not going to retain Manny Machado — and perhaps not fellow offseason free agents Britton, Brad Brach or Adam Jones, either.
In an AL East in which the Yankees and Red Sox have the talent to run away and hide, how long does Baltimore — often an organization that grinds slowly in decision making — wait, if the season plays out in this fashion, before making its players available? There might not be a ton of teams with needs at short and third, for example, and do the Orioles run the risk of not maximizing Machado if this is their rotation again and they stubbornly fight for a playoff spot against reality?